Fattycat

$BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

I have just added more BYD shares today. I am doubling down on my conviction.

Looking at the latest April 2026 global Price to Sales (P/S) data, the picture is clear:

1️⃣ Global Auto Manufacturers Avg: ~1.0x

2️⃣ Traditional OEMs (Toyota, VW, etc.): ~0.5x – 0.9x

3️⃣ Pure-Play EV Startups (NIO, XPeng, Li Auto): ~2.0x – 4.0x

4️⃣ BYD: ~1.1x

As the world’s #1 NEV seller by volume, BYD currently trades nearly in line with the mature traditional auto average (~1.0x P/S). This is not where a market leading tech-integrated EV player should be.

A ~1.1x P/S means the market is pricing BYD like a slow-growth legacy manufacturer.

The market is ignoring its leadership, scale, and battery tech edge. To me, this represents a deep discount and not fair value.

I see strong upside ahead and believe this is an attractive accumulation zone. Added more, staying convicted for the long run. 😁

Watch out for tomorrow’s Fed meeting minutes. There are many uncertainties surrounding what Kevin Warsh may signal regarding future rate decisions. I expect markets to trade cautiously before further movement.😉

Today is also Bilibili’s Q1 2026 earnings release. I will be closely watching the company’s earnings performance and strategic direction as it could influence my next investment.🤭

Watch out for tomorrow’s Fed meeting minutes. There are many uncertainties surrounding what Kevin Warsh may signal regarding future rate decisions. I expect markets to trade cautiously before further movement.😉

Today is also Bilibili’s Q1 2026 earnings release. I will be closely watching the company’s earnings performance and strategic direction as it could influence my next investment.🤭

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

100,000 blocks remain until the next bitcoin halving 🤗. Bullish or Bearish 🤔?

$Bilibili(BILI.US)

I bought more Bilibili shares last week. With the stock down nearly 38% in just three months, the recent sell-off looks overextended.

I am confident the upcoming earnings will validate this entry point.

My conviction aligns with significant institutional buying recorded earlier this month:

1️⃣ CSOP Asset Management: 2.15M shares ( 1 May 2026)

2️⃣ Goldman Sachs: 3.07M shares (4 May 2026)

3️⃣ JPMorgan Chase & Co: 3.90M shares (4 May 2026)

Backing my own analysis on this one. I buy when others are fearful.

$PETROCHINA(00857.HK)$CNOOC(00883.HK)

⛽ PetroChina (0857.HK) vs CNOOC (0883.HK): Which Chinese Oil Giant Looks Better Today?

China’s major oil companies continue to trade at relatively cheap valuations despite generating strong cash flows and attractive dividends. But not all energy giants are built the same.

Among the big three are PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinopec. Retail Investors who are keen to invest in these counters should focus on balance sheet quality, profitability and resilience in a slower-growth China economy.

🔷Fundamental Snapshot

PetroChina (0857.HK)

🟢Large integrated oil & gas business

🟢Strong natural gas growth segment

🟢Stable cash flow and attractive dividends

🟢More defensive due to diversified operations

🟢Moderate leverage

CNOOC (0883.HK)

🟢Offshore upstream oil producer

🟢Lowest production cost among Chinese peers

🟢Net cash balance sheet

🟢ROE around 15–16%

🟢Strong dividend profile

🔷Valuation Snapshot

PetroChina

1️⃣Current P/E around 7–9x

2️⃣High dividend yield

3️⃣Cheap but carries China SOE discount

CNOOC

1️⃣Current P/E around 8–9x

3️⃣EV/EBITDA around 3.8x

4️⃣Debt to equity only ~0.08x

While both stocks look inexpensive compared to global oil majors, CNOOC stands out for its stronger balance sheet and higher operational quality.

🔷The Verdict

✅ Best overall quality: CNOOC

✅ More defensive integrated play: PetroChina

⚠️ Weakest structurally: Sinopec

If oil prices remain supportive, both could continue delivering solid dividends. But from a pure fundamentals perspective, CNOOC currently appears to offer the better risk-reward profile among Chinese oil majors

Personal opinion. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.😁

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

🏆 [Weekly] Bitcoin Pauses: Correction or Consolidation Amid Macro & Regulatory Clouds?

Bitcoin trades at $77,888, stalling at the $79,340–$82,959 resistance zone. The daily chart signals fading momentum, compounded by major fundamental shifts.

🔷Technical Snapshots

1️⃣ Structure: Price broke below the mid-Bollinger Band ($79,340), testing the 20-day SMA.

2️⃣ Key Levels: Critical support at $75,721 (lower band); a close below shifts focus to $70K–$68K. Resistance at $79,340.

3️⃣ Momentum: RSI dropped from 60 to 48.04, losing bullish steam but not yet oversold.

4️⃣Trend: Uptrend from March lows holds only if $75K support defends.

🔷Fundamental Snapshots

🟢 Regulation: Clarity Law: New U.S. crypto legislation aims to define assets and set rules, bringing long-term certainty but near-term compliance uncertainty, cooling institutional inflows.

🟢 Geopolitical Risk: Rising tensions (Middle East, trade frictions) spark safe-haven rotation into cash/gold, weighing on risk assets like BTC.

🟢 Fed Policy Uncertainty: New Fed Chair signals data-dependent policy, pushing rate cut bets to later in 2026; higher-for-longer rates pressure non-yielding assets.

🟢 ETF Flows: Inflows slowed sharply, with occasional outflows as institutions pause amid macro/regulatory fog.

🟢 Accumulation: Whales/LTHs hold, but buying has stalled with no distribution and indecision.

🔷The Verdict

Neutral / Cautiously Bullish.Technically trend is up but fragile. And that most analysts expect a $75K retest before a bounce; a break below $74K risks deeper correction. Long-term bulls await regulatory clarity and rate cuts to re-enter.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.😁

💡Jerome Powell Exits, Kevin Warsh Takes Over: What It Means for the Economy🤔

🔷 Key Transition Dates

Friday, 15 May 2026, marks Jerome Powell’s last day in office. Kevin Warsh is set to be officially sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on Monday, 18 May 2026.

There are reasons to be cautious about how he will perform in the role.

🔷 Buffett’s Silence Speaks Volumes

At the latest Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett praised Powell’s tenure, noting his work “helped me sleep better.”

But he made no mention of Warsh, nor offered broader comments on the Fed. This silence has left observers wondering about Buffett’s view of Warsh, especially his independence and readiness for the tough road ahead.

🔷A Tough Economic Hand to Play

The task awaiting Warsh next week is demanding. The latest economic backdrop includes:

1️⃣30-year Treasury yields above 5%

2️⃣Real wages down ~0.2% YoY (3.8% core CPI vs 3.6% nominal wage growth)

3️⃣CPI +3.8% YoY (highest since May 23)

4️⃣PPI index +6% YoY (highest since Dec 22)

5️⃣Core PCE Price Index +2.8% YoY

6️⃣Gas prices +28.5% YoY

7️⃣Brent crude oil prices are up ~ +75% to +80% YoY

8️⃣ Jet fuel: ~$163/bbl → +81% YoY

⚖️ Politics & Policy in Focus

Appointed by President Trump, Warsh faces perceptions of pressure to cut rates. Analysts are watching to see if he leans on quantitative tightening to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. One of the best way for him to balance inflation control with political expectations.

🔷 Markets Are Watching Next Wednesday

The release of Fed meeting minutes next week will be critical. It will set the tone for the stock markets. Uncertainty remains over Warsh’s stance on interest rates and whether he can steer the economy through these challenges effectively.

What do you think will be Warsh’s biggest test in his first months as Fed Chair? Will there be any interest rates cut in coming FOMC meeting?

🏆 Weekly Gold (XAUUSD):💥 Gold Crashes 2.4% – Is the Bull Market Over?

🔷 Market Overview

Gold suffered one of its sharpest declines in recent months, falling -111.6 points (-2.40%) to close near $4,540.65. The move below $4,600 weakens short-term bullish momentum as traders price in higher for longer US interest rates.

🔷 Technical Snapshots

🟢 Bollinger Bands (Daily)

Price collapsed from the middle band ($4,662.60) and is now testing the lower band at $4,508.61. A break below could accelerate selling toward $4,400.

🟢 RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Daily RSI 14 dropped to 39.42 – firmly in bearish territory but not yet oversold (30). There may be more room to fall.

🟢 Support & Resistance

Immediate support: 4,400. Resistance: 4,816.58 (upper BB). Gold must reclaim $4,660 to stabilize.

🔷 Fundamental Snapshot:

The selloff wasn’t random. Traders blamed four interlinked drivers:

1️⃣ Rising US Treasury yields – making non-yielding gold less attractive.

2️⃣ Stronger US dollar – pressuring dollar-priced commodities.

3️⃣ Higher-for-longer rate expectations – markets now pricing fewer 2026 Fed cuts.

4️⃣ Inflation fears tied to geopolitics – ironically, even inflation fears are hurting gold because they fuel rate-hike bets.

Next week two key events now dominate the radar, 20 May 2026 US time:

🟢Initial Jobless Claims

A vital weekly snapshot of the labor market’s health. A low reading will reinforce Fed hawkishness, pressuring gold toward $4,400. Previous reported figure was around 211K.

🟢 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Markets will scrutinise the April 29 meeting for clues on future rate decisions.

Key contradiction: Gold typically hedges inflation, but today the market fears the Fed’s response to inflation more than inflation itself.

🔷 The Verdict

Bearish near-term. A close below $4,508 opens $4,400. Wait for RSI to hit 30 or a reclaim of $4,660 before considering longs. Unless you are a day trader😁

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

$Bilibili(BILI.US)

I invested in Bilibili for two main reasons. First, I saw little justification for the sell-off after better than expected full year 2025 earnings. In fact, I bought more shares yesterday in the US market when the price dropped by more than 7%.🤭

In my view, Bilibili’s long-term strengths remain firmly intact and the recent price correction is only temporary.

Furthermore, Bilibili is showing improving margins, stronger cash flow and a clearer path toward sustainable profitability. Its highly engaged user base has created a resilient ecosystem that is difficult for competitors to replicate.

Beyond the fundamentals, the US listing gives me the flexibility to engage in factor trading and manage my positions more actively. Sometimes, the best investments come from understanding where the next generation is spending their time and attention.😉

Look out for Singapore listed palm oil stocks as super El Niño may likely to happen this coming July 😉

Look out for Singapore listed palm oil stocks as super El Niño may likely to happen this coming July 😉

[Week 4] Portfolio Health Check: Post-Earnings Rebalancing 📈🔄

1️⃣ Current Holdings

I have made some major moves this week to rebalance my exposure. My sector distributions have shifted significantly:

🟢 Automobiles: 26.44% (BYD)

🟢 Interactive Media & Services: 22.10%

(Tencent & Bilibili)

🟢 Broadline Retail: 24.06% (Alibaba & JD)

🟢 Tech Hardware & Peripherals: 17.09% (Xiaomi)

My largest conviction has shifted to BYD (26.44%), followed by my new entry, Tencent (20.66%). I have also increased my US stake in Bilibili.😁

2️⃣ Earnings Watch

After the JD and Alibaba reports, my focus now shifts to the tail end of the month:

🟢 Bilibili: 19 May 2026 (Tuesday)

🟢 Xiaomi: 26 May 2026 (Tuesday)

I will be watching to see if Xiaomi’s hardware margins and Bilibili’s user monetisation can beat market expectations.

3️⃣ Portfolio Reaction

I followed through on my plan to lock in profits! I trimmed JD significantly (from 800 to 200 shares) and its current P/L has jumped to +12.70% following a positive earnings reaction. Alibaba remains my strongest anchor at +24.37%.

Newcomer Tencent is currently flat (-0.64%) while BYD (-4.74%) and Bilibili (-8.05%) are facing some short-term pressure.

4️⃣ Next Plan

With the capital freed up from the JD sale, I have established a position in Tencent and added to BYD.

My next move is to wait for the Xiaomi and Bilibili earnings before making further adjustments. I am keeping my cash reserves flexible for any “buy the dip” opportunities in the HK tech sector.

5️⃣ Risk Check

My concentration risk has improved! My top two holdings now represent 47.1% of my portfolio (down from 66%+ last week).

I acknowledged that I am still heavily invested in Hong Kong market however adding Tencent provides a more stable, cash-flow-rich pillar to my strategy. Progressing toward a more balanced “All-Weather” setup! ⚖️

$JD-SW(09618.HK)

My journey with JD has been filled with ups and downs. I first bought the shares during the food delivery war, starting with 50 shares at HKD 125.8, and continued to DCA along the way, lowering my average cost to HKD 115.43 with 800 shares.

Even when JD.com fell to HKD 95, I stayed invested because I strongly believed in JD’s fundamentals.

This week, I decided to sell 600 shares to lock in gains following the earnings announcement. One important reason was to reduce my portfolio concentration risk .

I continue to hold the remaining shares with conviction. I strongly believe in JD’s long-term growth potential. This approach allows me to secure part of the profits while remaining invested for future upside.

Stay committed and ride the green dragon.

The US 30-year yield is back above 5% interestingly during Trump’s visit to China. Is it a protest?🤭

If long term yield move higher, global liquidity could tighten as borrowing conditions become tougher.😖

In summary, Fed has less room to support markets and higher interest rates may start weighing on valuations again. Watch out for REITs holders 😅

The US 30-year yield is back above 5% interestingly during Trump’s visit to China. Is it a protest?🤭

If long term yield move higher, global liquidity could tighten as borrowing conditions become tougher.😖

In summary, Fed has less room to support markets and higher interest rates may start weighing on valuations again. Watch out for REITs holders 😅

⏰The US 30-Year Yield Hits 5%: Why Gold and Stocks Are on High Alert⏰

For the first time in nearly two decades, the 30-year US Treasury yield has crossed the 5% mark. This shift is more than just a milestone; it fundamentally rewrites the rules of the market.

🔷The “Risk-Free” Reality Check

When the US government offers a guaranteed 5% return, the math for every other asset class changes.

For Gold, which provides no yield, the opportunity cost of ownership becomes steep. While central bank purchases offer some support, the pressure from rising bond yields is a significant near-term headwind.

🔷Equities Under Pressure

Stocks face a valuation squeeze. If the world’s safest investment pays 5%, investors naturally demand higher returns from equities. This typically leads to lower valuations, particularly for expensive growth stocks and sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.

🔷The Hidden Risk

Markets rarely follow a straight line. If yields are spiking due to concerns over US debt rather than economic strength, the traditional playbook could break.

In such a scenario, stocks and bonds might decline simultaneously, potentially driving investors back to gold as a safe haven.

🔷The Verdict

A 5% yield is not a signal to panic but it is a wake up call. Now is the time to re-evaluate portfolio balances and avoid speculative bets.

In an environment where “cash finally pays you to wait,” patience and diversification remain your strongest defenses. 🏛️💰

$BABA-W(09988.HK)

AI Revolution: Alibaba’s Strategic Leap Forward! 🚀

The future is here and it is powered by Intelligence! Alibaba’s 4QFY2026 results are in and the message from leadership is clear: AI is the ultimate growth engine. 🚀

The Big Highlights for the earnings call:

1️⃣ AI Dominance: Cloud Intelligence Group has achieved triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue!

From infrastructure to “Agentic AI,” Alibaba is integrating AI across its entire ecosystem, including the consumer-facing Qwen app.

2️⃣ Strategic Wins: Bold investments are paying off. We are seeing accelerated cloud revenue, an 8% boost in China e-commerce customer management, and improved unit economics in quick-commerce.

3️⃣ Future-Focused: Despite short-term profit pressure, CEO Eddie Wu and CFO Toby Xu are doubling down on “AI + Cloud” to secure a long-term competitive edge.

Alibaba’s strategy is simple: Invest now, lead later.

📊 Need the quick information about Alibaba Q4 FY2026 performance? I have attached an infographic presentation for easy reading.

$TENCENT(00700.HK)

Presented below are the key metrics from Tencent’s first-quarter 2026 results. It highlighted substantial advances in AI capabilities and productivity-focused AI agents. As the saying goes, figures speak for themselves.😁

$TENCENT(00700.HK)

I just added 100 shares of Tencent to my portfolio today.

With its massive HKD 700+ price target and aggressive pivot into AI/HunYuan 3.0, the current P/E looks very attractive with the current dividend payment of HKD 5.3 per share.

A good long term investment stock 😉

Let’s go Tencent🚀

$MEITUAN(03690.HK)$JD-SW(09618.HK)

🥡 Delivery Giant or 📦 Retail King? The 2026 China Tech Showdown

With JD.com’s latest 1Q 26 earnings report finally out, someone recently asked me: “if i am given a choice between Meituan or JD, which one should I pick?”

Choosing between these two has never been a simple task. If I had to decide which one deserves a spot in your portfolio, here is how the breakdown looks in mid-2026:

🏆 Meituan: The High-Stakes Gamble

🟢 The Bull Case: Meituan remains the undisputed “everything app” for services. Their international expansion via KeeTa is gaining real traction, and they still command over 60% of the domestic food delivery market.

🔴 The Bear Case: The bottom line has taken a serious hit. For the first time, their core business is bleeding cash as they fight a grueling multi-front war against JD and Douyin.

🟢 The Vibe: Pure “growth-at-all-costs” energy. 🚀

🏆JD.com: The Defensive Play

🟢 The Bull Case: They boast massive scale and the gold standard of logistics. JD is successfully pivoting from “delivery in days” to “delivery in 30 minutes” across nearly every product category.

🔴 The Bear Case: Core retail growth has leveled off into the single digits. Meanwhile, their dividend yield is not quite enough to offset the margin squeeze caused by aggressive price wars.

🟢 The Vibe: A steady ship navigating a heavy storm. ⚓

🔷 Personal Thoughts:

If I had to pull the trigger today, JD.com feels like the safer “value” play. This is because it is backed by a robust supply chain and more reliable cash flow.

However, Meituan is clearly the “alpha” play. If they can land their international expansion and stabilise the domestic price war, the potential for a massive rebound is huge.

Ultimately, Meituan is for the risk-takers while JD is for the patient investor.

What is your risk appetite 🤔?

$TENCENT(00700.HK)

🐉 Tencent: The Earnings Day Reckoning – Bottom or Trap? 🤔

Today is the day! As Tencent prepares to release its Q1 2026 results, the stock is at a major technical and fundamental crossroads. With the Middle East crisis keeping global markets on edge, here is the critical breakdown.

🔷Technical Analysis:

The 1H and 4H charts show a relentless downward channel.

🟢 Price Action: Currently sitting at HKD 457.2 , having officially broken below the previous support of HKD 460.

🟢 Bollinger Bands: Price is compressed against the lower band, suggesting extreme bearish pressure.

🟢 RSI (14): Hovering near 34.74, indicating that while we are in a “value zone,” momentum remains firmly with the bears. There is no sign of a trend reversal yet.

🔷Fundamental Analysis:

Tencent is entering earnings with a rock-bottom P/E ratio of 16.97x and a P/B of 3.31. While these numbers scream “undervalued,” the macro environment is toxic.

🟢 The Geopolitical Weight: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have triggered a flight to safety. Investors are ditching Chinese tech in favor of lower-risk assets, regardless of strong balance sheets.

🟢 Earnings Expectation: All eyes are on cloud growth and gaming recovery.

🔷 The Verdict

Tencent is a fundamental powerhouse trading at a discount but the geopolitical risk is the current ceiling.

Do not front run earnings. Wait for the post-market data and the HKD 456.7 support to hold. If the RSI starts curling up on the daily chart, a recovery play is on. Otherwise, stay on the sidelines.

Not financial advice. Always do your own DD and practice risk management 😉.

$JD-SW(09618.HK)

Good news. JD.com reported a 5% increase in quarterly revenue, beating market estimates. Attached is an AI-generated infographic for easy reading and understanding. Hope you find it useful.

$BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

JPMorgan Highlights: BYD’s Bold 2026 Outlook 🚗

JPMorgan analyst Nick Lai recently shared key takeaways on BYD signalling a more optimistic future than the market expects. He has a “Buy” rating on BYD with a price target of RMB 120.

Below is the breakdown:

🔷Introduction

BYD management is pushing for aggressive growth despite a crowded market that is fueled by new tech and a massive push into overseas territories.

🔷 The Fundamentals

🟢 Domestic Resilience: BYD targets 3.5M - 4M units in China for 2026. This exceeds market expectations of flat growth.

🟢 Premium Shift: BYD is moving upmarket. By Q4 2026, over 30% of sales are expected to come from premium models (>RMB 200K) featuring new ultra-fast charging, helping protect profit margins against price wars.

🟢 Overseas Surge: International sales are the new engine. Management expects 1.5M units abroad (50% YoY growth), supported by their own fleet of eight shipping vessels.

🔷Analyst Views

JPMorgan notes that investors have not fully priced in the profitability of new models. With overseas business expected to contribute 60% of vehicle revenue this year, BYD is effectively decoupling from domestic only risks. Demand is expected to recover sharply in Q2 2026, with volumes potentially jumping 60% sequentially.

🔷 The Verdict

BYD is evolving from a budget player to a high-tech, global powerhouse. While domestic competition remains fierce, their shipping autonomy and premium tech offer a “cautious but clear” competitive edge.

Keep an eye on Q2 volume recovery and premium model adoption.

Source: https://longbridge.com/news/285910611?channel=SH000001&invite-code=UIGOS8OY&app_id=longbridge_sg&utm_source=longbridge_sg_app_share&locale=en&share_track_id=2f176dda-7301-462a-a3d5-815ac3950017

With Trump at Beijing tomorrow and CPI tonight, I prefer to stay sideline for better clarity. Trump single visit is not likely to solve the underlying long term outstanding issues between US and China. Major breakthrough for business deals are high unlikely. Let’s see if I am correct 🤭.