Serenity

Wow, 27,500 paid subscribers is an insane number on X.

That’s enough to help put a 1 fun billboard somewhere in SF?

But will keep sharing a lot of ideas, despite current market drops!

Got a lot of fun $SOI type monopolies in mind as your countries play supply chain warfare.

Source: Serenity

Next year… I’m expecting there to be many articles about FAU + component bottlenecks.

Especially as the new CPO architecture led by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) + $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) starts to scale.

Then a lot of these names like FOCI (~$2.8B MC) or Nextronics (~$246M MC) that I’m mentioning today will be in the center of it.

Despite many of these “commodity” labels… (just look at transformers/NAND)

And I’ll do a “Did you listen anon post” like $AXT(AXTI.US).

We’ll see if this is right.

Source: Serenity

I’m convinced the Toothpick market is pulling some black magic.

There’s zero reason why Korean BBQ restaurants or Dim Sum places continue to offer toothpicks

That don’t do anything aside from annoy you when you can’t get stuff out in between your teeth.

Instead of just floss.

Source: Serenity

Donald Trump is apparently long Sushi.

I genuinely find it hilarious the President took a large % ownership of Kura Sushi ( $Kura Sushi USA(KRUS.US), ~$600m MC).

Among everything from $Broadcom(AVGO.US) to $NVIDIA(NVDA.US).

If Trump did buy $5M worth, the president would own close to ~.8% of one of my favorite US Sushi Chains.

Don't have any open positions... but I do love the idea of our President buying up Sushi restaurants.

Source: Serenity

$Robostrategy(BOT.US) is the biggest red flag.

NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92.

You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B.

Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail.

Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals.

To make matters worse:

There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion.

I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality:

Retail just looks like exit liquidity.

Source: Serenity

Lot of people on X are talking about AI/startup billboards.

Just a shower thought:

Can’t I just buy a bunch of SF billboard space for fun?

But instead of something like $Nebius(NBIS.US) (not my photo btw)….

I just put something fun related to X?

Apparently it’s not expensive.

Source: Serenity

I'm not sure why people look at 13F filings so deeply when all the hedge funds are super behind on names like $Jabil(JBL.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US) and others.

The most returns come from frontrunning institutions before they figure out the next $Sandisk(SNDK.US).

Not following them 3 months after they file.

Source: Serenity

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis.

TLDR: Extremely Bullish.

Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.

1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"

For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.

"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)

2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"

$Lumentum(LITE.US) already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.

And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.

"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"

$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.

This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.

VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):

3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"

H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET Tech(POET.US).

4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"

$Aeva Tech(AEVA.US) start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.

Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.

5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing)

FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals.

Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle.

But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE.

TLDR:

-> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck

-> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion.

-> New customers for CW lasers

-> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

Source: Serenity

“Robotics may be the biggest product category of all time” - $Cadence Design(CDNS.US) CEO.

“The projection is $25 trillion. The whole GDP of the world is $110 trillion. So this is huge if this happens.”

Extremely bullish on robotics/humanoids directionally.

But maybe it’s time for $Tesla(TSLA.US) and America to really start prioritizing how we build it outside Chinese supply chains?

Source: Serenity

What an insane day for photonics.

$SIVE up 31.3%

$Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) up 23.1%

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) 20.01%.

It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go.

Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $Sandisk(SNDK.US)?

Here they are.

Source: Serenity

Why do I feel like a mythical unicorn now?

I mention a ticker once out of a list of 50 others.

Then I see the X community celebrating and the stock price going up 26%.

Stocks don’t need me for validation you know, they’ll do just fine on their own.

Source: Serenity

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) is now up ~6-7x at $200+.

Feels like nobody else was long last year aside from me and like two other people on X?

Remains one of my top high conviction optical longs moving forward into 2027 due to massive revenue ramp + Made in America supply chains.

Source: Serenity

People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently.

Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long.

Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics...

I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) @ ~$30, $Lumentum(LITE.US) ~$300s, and $AXT(AXTI.US) at ~$13 on X....

With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show.

CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity.

In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research.

While overall optical market reaches $154B.

Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all:

-> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates.

-> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries.

-> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals.

Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO.

As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector.

My contrarian thought process on current players:

Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage.

A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver).

Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too...

I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.

Source: Serenity

Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451).

Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm.

-> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

-> CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant…

Guess which company has been aggressively expanding its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO for the past few years?

As I said before Shunsin is basically a free hard-carry by Foxconn.

Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.

Source: Serenity

Woah, rough day for Europe.

Looks like everything from $SOI to $LPK and others are down 10-20% from overwhelmingly macro.

Fun thing if war sentiment flips, as they often do with our president… lot of these names should go a lot higher.

Source: Serenity

$Fluence Energy(FLNC.US) 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down.

The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands.

The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge.

Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure.

That’s the overhang…

I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure.

But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals.

Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.

Source: Serenity

Just 3 months ago, European media called my $RPI thesis:

"A Meme Stock" where earnings isn't factored into decisions.

2 months ago, $SOI was labeled "overvalued, with nothing new with the thesis".

This month it's $SIVE is "nothing special with Sivers or CPO, it's been around for years".

Each are still hitting YTD highs with triple digit returns. Especially, Raspberry PI after it shattered projections by 52% to 55% fwd. rev growth from ~15% est.

And I expect all 3 ($RPI, $SIVE, and $SOI) to keep delivering record growth as AI, SiPH, and CPO drive structural re-rating.

Maybe after each negative hit piece... it's time for European media to look in a mirror?

The ones focusing on actual fundamentals are the ones they're mocking.

Source: Serenity

Random CPO related names I like:

- $SIVE

- Foci (3363)

- $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US)

- Browave (3163)

- PCL (4977)

- $AXT(AXTI.US)

- Msscorps (6830)

- $IQE

- Shunsin (6451)

- Furukawa Electric (5801)

- $Macom Tech(MTSI.US)

- Nextronics (8417)

- $Lumentum(LITE.US)

- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)

- FitTech (6706)

- $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US)

- $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)

- LandMark (3081)

- $SOI

Disclosure: I own most, not all though.

Source: Serenity

Seems like everyone on X is looking to hoard AP x Swatch watches on release.

I’m curious if that will show up in $The Swatch Group AG(SWGAY.US) / $UHR (Swatch) stock prices from increased sales?

Source: Serenity

Today I learned $SIVE was so actively shorted...

That the price going up accidentally might take down hedge funds?

A hedge fund Colosseum is down -19.8% last month largely due to their short position of Sivers.

They now face infinite losses as CPO ramps up parabolically over the next two years.

Sivers was never a short squeeze play since fundamentally, it's one of the most compelling CPO related longs.

But it's an interesting effect as a byproduct, especially now that they might need to buy back % of the float.

Source: Serenity

I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting?

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint.

Source: Serenity

Today I learned there’s a $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CPO supplier that builds massage chairs and US Humanoids on the side.

The Toto toilet HBM meme keeps showing up everywhere.

Source: Serenity

Is it just me…

Or does it feel like everyone on X or $Reddit(RDDT.US) made millions off of $Intel(INTC.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), and $AMD(AMD.US) recently?

Source: Serenity