According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Hualong Securities has released a research report stating that dexterous hands, as end effectors of humanoid robots, have a vast market space, with the market size expected to reach 45 billion yuan by 2030. Under the dual constraints of performance and cost, it is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in three core areas: drive motors, transmission systems, and tactile sensors. As humanoid robots approach large-scale mass production, the technical route of dexterous hands is gradually converging, and several core links in the industrial chain, such as drive motors, lead screws, tendons, and sensors, are welcoming marginal increments, maintaining an industry "recommended" rating.

The main points of Hualong Securities are as follows:

End effectors of humanoid robots have significant marginal change space in the industrial chain

Dexterous hands are the end effectors of humanoid robots, consisting of three major systems: drive, transmission, and perception. The current focus on dexterous hands is based on three points: first, the technical route has not yet fully converged and is still in a continuous iteration stage, with marginal changes in solutions potentially bringing marginal increments in core components; second, dexterous hands are key to the functionality of humanoid robots; third, the market space is large, with the value of dexterous hands accounting for 30% of the body, and the market size expected to reach 45 billion yuan by 2030.

Summary of mainstream solutions: lightweight, high freedom, multi-modal perception, and composite transmission

The firm has collected information on 28 dexterous hand-related products from 20 domestic and foreign manufacturers and summarized the current mainstream dexterous hand solutions. From the perspective of iteration direction, the main trends can be summarized in three points: more flexible, high freedom + lightweight. The freedom of mainstream solutions has gradually increased from 6 to 12-20, with motors shifting to the forearm to reduce weight and create space; more intelligent, with the evolution of multi-modal perception capabilities. Dexterous hands like Lingxin Qiaoshou's L2 and Zhiyuan Robotics' SkillHand can better handle the recognition and manipulation of soft and irregular objects through multi-modal perception; more flexible, with composite transmission solutions being adopted. Domestic dexterous hands have gradually shifted from pure rigid transmission solutions like linkages to tendon transmission and composite transmission solutions of tendon + lead screw.

Focusing on industrial chain incremental opportunities under the dual constraints of performance & cost. Based on the current mainstream solution iteration direction, it is recommended to focus on the following core links of dexterous hands

Drive motors: High-value link, with increased freedom driving the number of single-hand motors. As freedom increases, the number of drive motors required for a single dexterous hand increases. Hollow cup motors are small in size, have high power density, and fast response speed, making them ideal drive motors for dexterous hands, but current costs are relatively high. It is expected that costs will decrease and domestic replacements will be realized under breakthroughs in domestic equipment and downstream demand; the technical indicators of brushless DC motors are inferior to hollow cup motors, but costs are lower. Optimus Gen3 has shifted the position of the drive motor from the palm to the forearm, reducing space requirements, and the application rate of brushless DC motors is expected to increase.

Transmission systems: The tendon + lead screw composite transmission solution is expected to become mainstream. Led by Optimus Gen3, the composite solution of tendon + lead screw is expected to become the iteration direction of dexterous hand transmission systems. Among them, tendon transmission can provide dexterous hands with higher freedom and flexibility while reducing space occupation and weight. UHMWPE is the ideal material for tendons, and the market size for dexterous hands using UHMWPE is expected to reach 5.28 billion yuan by 2030. Domestic manufacturers like Nanshan Zhishang already have products available for dexterous hands; Planetary roller screws are ideal dexterous hand drive components, but they are still constrained by high costs. Domestic manufacturers are still in the small batch trial production stage. Ball screws, as a low-cost alternative, have already formed mass supply capabilities among domestic manufacturers.

Tactile Sensors: A necessary component for dexterous hands with high technical barriers. Tactile sensors are gradually becoming essential parts of dexterous hands, evolving from fingertip-mounted to full-hand array-mounted electronic skin. Domestic manufacturers are expected to gradually achieve domestic substitution driven by downstream demand for dexterous hands, with leading domestic companies including the non-listed company Pasini Technology, as well as Hanwei Technology and Shenhao Technology.

Risk Warning: The industrialization of robotics may not meet expectations; policy change risks; intensified competition risks; geopolitical risks; third-party data error risks; pay close attention to the company's performance not meeting expectations