According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan has released a research report stating that robots performing general tasks require dexterity, with dexterous hands being the core hardware for humanoid robots. Touch sensing has the potential to permeate from fingers to the entire body. When the annual production of humanoid robots reaches 100 million units, the touch sensing market may welcome a trillion-dollar blue ocean. The report strongly recommends the touch sensor industry. The cost reduction of humanoid robots exceeds expectations, their generalization capabilities exceed expectations, leading manufacturers are accelerating the implementation of touch sensing, and the penetration of touch sensing exceeds expectations, serving as a catalyst for industry stock prices.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

A hundred schools of thought contend in touch sensing, and platform companies that integrate multiple technological routes are more competitive

There are numerous technological routes for touch sensing, and each single route has performance and cost bottlenecks. Currently, the domestic industry is dominated by capacitive and magnetoelectric Hall effect technologies, and in the future, there may be a fusion of multiple technological routes to complement each other's strengths.

The vast majority of players in touch sensing have not yet gone public, and they can be roughly divided into four categories based on mainstream technological routes: piezoresistive (Interlink, Tekscan, SPI, Hanwei Technology, Fulaijing Material, Moxian Technology, Riying Electronics, etc.), capacitive (PPS, Tashan Technology, Hanwei Technology, etc.), magnetoelectric Hall effect (XELA, Pasini, etc.), and visual touch (Gelsight, Qianjue, Daimeng, Weitai, etc.); and roughly divided into four categories based on background: upstream material companies (Fulaixin Material, etc.), established sensor companies (Hanwei Technology, etc.), startups exploring cutting-edge routes (Tashan Technology, Pasini, etc.), and downstream application companies (Shenhao Technology, etc.).

The production of flexible touch sensors suitable for robots requires a composite capability in materials, manufacturing, and algorithms, resulting in a high entry barrier. In addition, flexible touch sensors may develop towards arraying, multimodal fusion, edge computing, and self-powering in the future.

The application of humanoid robots is on the rise, and touch sensing may welcome a trillion-dollar blue ocean

According to VMR data, the global touch sensor market size is projected to be USD 15.33 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 35.59 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.8%. The mainstream technological routes are piezoresistive (37%) and capacitive (28%). The main downstream sectors are manufacturing/aerospace & defense, and the application of humanoid robots is on the rise. Currently, humanoid robots are still in the early stages of implementing touch sensing in dexterous hands, overall still at L3 and below levels, similar to the level of human children (ages 4-7). Dexterous hands are the first link in the implementation of touch sensing, and as task complexity increases and application scenarios expand (from industrial and commercial to household), touch sensing may extend from hands to arms, feet, torso, and face, with enormous growth potential.

According to estimates, when the production of humanoid robots reaches 10 million/100 million units, the corresponding market size for touch sensors (with the integration of various technological routes) will be approximately 0.24/1.3 trillion yuan, respectively. If only a single technological route occupies the entire market, when the production of humanoid robots reaches 100 million units, the corresponding market sizes for each technological route will be: piezoresistive 301 billion yuan, capacitive approximately 1.25 trillion yuan, magnetoelectric Hall effect approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, and visual touch (VBTS) approximately 3.76 trillion yuan Risk Warning: The cost reduction iteration and practical application of humanoid robots may not meet expectations, market competition is intensifying, breakthroughs in tactile sensing technology may fall short of expectations, and the penetration of tactile sensing may not meet expectations