Key Points

• The Straits Times Index closed at 5,415.14 on Thursday, down 0.42% (-22.85 points); losers outnumbered gainers 410 to 198, with S$1.6 billion changing hands.
• Frasers Centrepoint Trust led STI gainers (+2.4% to S$2.11), while Seatrium was the worst performer (-2.7% to S$1.78).
• SG macro: MAS held the S$NEER on its appreciating path in October; 2026 core inflation is forecast at 1.5–2.0% and GDP growth estimates were raised to about 5%.
• US overnight: S&P 500 -1.5%, Nasdaq about -2.6% (worst since June 23); Meta sank over 7% and WTI crude jumped to about $99.4 a barrel.
• Today: American Express Q3 pre-market; S&P Global flash PMIs land at 9.45pm SGT.

Singapore Open

Local stocks finished in the red on Thursday as the banks, which dominate the benchmark, gave back more ground. The STI lost 22.85 points to 5,415.14. Across the broader market just 198 counters advanced against 410 declines, suggesting the weakness was not confined to the blue chips.

The three lenders were the main drag. $DBS (D05.SG)$ eased to about S$74.6, slipping from its record high, while $OCBC (O39.SG)$ and $UOB (U11.SG)$ also closed lower. The pullback reflects continued profit-taking after a strong run, with US Treasury yields still elevated near 5% keeping valuation questions alive for the sector. By contrast, $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ traded around S$4.16, down 0.7%, after the telecom regulator reportedly imposed a S$1 million penalty over March network disruptions. Frasers Centrepoint Trust added 2.4% to S$2.11, and Seatrium sank 2.7% to S$1.78. A near-term catalyst to watch: the three banks' third-quarter results begin arriving in November.

Singapore Macro

The Monetary Authority of Singapore held the S$NEER policy band on its prevailing appreciation path at the October review, maintaining core inflation forecasts of 1.5–2.0% for 2026 and headline inflation around 2.0%. That stance is meant to lean against imported inflation, which is exactly where the overnight oil spike matters: Brent topping $113 and WTI near $99 raise energy costs that Singapore, a heavy energy importer, must absorb. Q3 GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, and private-sector economists have lifted full-year 2026 growth forecasts to about 5%. For SGX investors the transmission runs two ways: firmer oil supports energy-linked names such as $Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG)$, but a persistent rise in imported costs could keep rates higher for longer, squeezing REIT financing costs even as the appreciating S$NEER helps cap dollar-based input inflation.

US Overnight

US equities were hit hard in Thursday's session, which closed this morning Singapore time. The S&P 500 fell 1.47% to 7,642.66, while the Nasdaq Composite lost about 2.6% — its worst one-day drop since June 23. The Dow ended roughly flat as investors rotated toward old-economy defensives. The 10-year Treasury yield slid roughly 15–20 basis points to about 4.96%, dipping below 5% for the first time in nearly a month and posting its sharpest one-day fall in more than three years. Two forces drove the move: reports that the US and Israel may resume strikes on Iran next month sent oil higher, and Meta's heavy AI spending plan rekindled fears of debt-funded capital expenditure across the tech complex.

Key Movers

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ -7% — Meta reported Q3 the prior evening with headline numbers that beat, but management's aggressive 2027 spending plan for its "Muse" AI platform intensified concerns about how the buildout will be financed. A $9.9 billion legal charge also weighed on the quarter. The slide set the tone for the broader AI selloff and dragged megacap technology lower.

$Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ -4.4% — Nvidia led a sharp chip retreat after Lam Research's soft forecast revived doubts about AI return-on-investment. $AMD (AMD.US)$ tumbled about 7.6% and $Intel (INTC.US)$ dropped 8%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell about 6.7%. The read-across to Singapore's small semiconductor complex — names like $Venture (V03.SG)$ — is negative, though direct local AI exposure remains limited.

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ -9.1% — The Nasdaq-listed SpaceX shares were swept up in the de-risking of high-multiple technology and AI-infrastructure holdings, extending a volatile stretch for the name.

Asia Pre-Market

US equity futures were still stabilising in early Friday Asian trading after Thursday's rout left S&P 500 futures down about 1.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down about 3% at their last session prints. WTI held near $99.4 a barrel with Brent above $113; gold slid to a two-week low around $4,060 an ounce, off roughly 2%; Bitcoin traded near $81,300, down about 3.4%. For the SGX open the signals are mixed: elevated crude is a tailwind for $Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG)$ and energy plays, while the flight into bonds suggests yield-sensitive banks and REITs could still find some support even if tech sentiment stays fragile.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

A lighter earnings day; the focus is on consumer credit and the October flash PMIs.

Earnings Spotlight: $American Express (AXP.US)$ — The card giant reports pre-market on Friday; consensus is about $4.47 EPS on roughly $20.1 billion revenue. Watch expense growth and credit metrics — card delinquencies are a read on US consumer health — plus any change to the full-year EPS band of $17.30–$17.90. The print lands the same evening as the flash PMIs, doubling the macro signal for Singapore's afternoon.

One More Thing

When oil rallies and AI names fall on the same day, the market is sending a stagflation-flavoured risk signal rather than a clean sector rotation. The useful test for the next session is whether the bid in Treasuries survives beyond the geopolitical headline. If the 10-year stays below 5% but oil does not retreat, that combination argues for defensive, yield-bearing assets — a setup that historically favours Singapore banks' dividend appeal over high-multiple AI proxies.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.