Westpac Banking Corp.’s chief executive officer has warned the conflict in the Middle East has raised the risk of a recession in Australia, saying that it was unclear how long supply chain disruptions from the Iran war could take to work their way through the economy.

Miller, who leads one of the nation’s big four banks, said in an interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that “circumstances have changed so much that a recession is a chance.”

“The key is how long is this war going to go on, but more importantly how long does it take for supply chain consequences to be resolved,” Miller told an ABC podcast released on Friday.

Australia’s most recent GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 came in at 2.6% year-on-year, however the war in Iran has seen cascading impacts across the nation’s economy over the past month.

The price of diesel on which the country is heavily reliant has , with shortages reported in every state, while freight costs have risen globally, a headache for the island trading nation. Speaking in mid-March, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia was not a recession.

Westpac’s chief economist said in a note on March 30 that she was expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its benchmark rate over the course of 2026, bringing it to a 17-year high, in an effort to quell growing inflation.