AGMB

Key Points

STI snapshot: The Straits Times Index ended Monday (Oct 26) at 5,415.91, down 6.25 points or 0.12%, with gainers and losers level at 252 each on S$1.4 billion of turnover.

Local catalyst: DBS, OCBC and UOB all slipped — $DBS (D05.SG)$ to S$74.21 (-0.31%) — as investors wait for the banks' November results and the US Fed's decision.

US overnight: Wall Street rallied, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, the Nasdaq up 0.82% and the Dow up 146 points, as Anthropic's IPO filing lifted chips and $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ jumped about 5% on a Barclays upgrade.

Today's schedule: US durable goods and consumer confidence land tonight; the Fed decision follows Wednesday, with Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.

Singapore Open

The benchmark Straits Times Index slipped 0.1% to close at 5,415.91 on Monday. Turnover was thin at 932.6 million securities worth S$1.4 billion, and the market was split down the middle with 252 gainers versus 252 losers.

The three banks, the index's heaviest weights, drifted lower. $DBS (D05.SG)$ fell 0.31% to S$74.21, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ eased 0.17% to S$28.95, and $UOB (U11.SG)$ lost 0.70% to S$41.30. $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ bucked the trend, adding 0.73% to S$4.15. The session's worst STI performer was $Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG)$, down 2.8% to S$5.84, while Hongkong Land led gainers, up 2.2%.

With the three banks due to report third-quarter results in November, investors are focused on whether net interest margins stay resilient against elevated US rates, and whether fee and wealth-management income can keep offsetting any normalisation in trading revenue.

Singapore Macro

The Monetary Authority of Singapore left its S$NEER policy band unchanged on Oct 14 and narrowed its 2026 core-inflation forecast to 1.5-2.0%. Core inflation picked up to 2.1% year-on-year in July-August, and MAS flagged energy and food-price shocks as key upside risks. Third-quarter GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year on advance estimates, led by technology-related sectors.

For SGX investors the read-through is two-fold: steady policy keeps the Singapore dollar's path stable and supports bank net interest margins, but a renewed oil spike — crude is near six-month highs — would raise import costs and could delay the inflation easing MAS expects only from mid-2027.

US Overnight

US equities closed higher on Monday. The S&P 500 added 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.82% and the Dow gained 146 points, rebounding ahead of a pivotal week. Sentiment was boosted by Anthropic's formal IPO filing for a Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT, and by news that Meta had launched a roughly US$35 billion equity raise — a US$22.5 billion Class A offering plus a US$12.5 billion mandatory convertible preferred — to fund its AI buildout, with plans for a further US$60 billion Class C at-the-market program.

Key Movers

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ +5% — Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight with a US$450 target, arguing a potential SpaceX merger could accelerate Tesla's shift into AI and autonomous driving. The shares broke back above US$386 and their 200-day moving average to a near three-month high; Musk confirmed special committees are evaluating a deal, though no terms are set.

$Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ +2% — Chip makers rallied after Anthropic's IPO filing underscored sustained demand for AI compute, with $AMD (AMD.US)$ also up more than 2%. The AI-infrastructure theme got a further lift from Goldman Sachs arranging about US$210 billion of single-day financing linked to Meta, SpaceX and Anthropic.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ +1.45% — The stock rose after Microsoft detailed a voluntary exit program for roughly 60,000 employees as it manages costs around a planned US$175 billion AI-infrastructure buildout. Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 results Wednesday after the close.

Asia Pre-Market

US equity futures were little changed in early Asian trading, with E-mini S&P 500 futures up about 0.13%. WTI crude hovered near US$101 a barrel, around six-month highs, keeping energy costs and inflation risks in focus. Gold traded near US$4,013 an ounce and Bitcoin around US$80,200.

For the SGX open, the steadier futures tone and firm chip complex are mild positives, but the near-record oil price is the main watch item for local inflation-sensitive names and transport-heavy blue chips.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

It is mega-cap tech week: roughly 44% of the S&P 500 reports, with the Fed decision sandwiched between the results.

Earnings Spotlight — Microsoft. Microsoft reports fiscal Q1 2027 on Wednesday after the close (around 4:05am Thursday SGT). Consensus is US$4.71 EPS on US$90.63 billion of revenue, with Azure growth guided to roughly 45% in constant currency and Intelligent Cloud revenue of US$40.95-41.25 billion. Capex is the wildcard — management has flagged spending of over US$50 billion including lease reclassifications. The report lands the same day as the Fed decision, with Q3 GDP and September PCE following Thursday, so the AI-capex guidance will be read against a live interest-rate backdrop.

One More Thing

This week's Fed decision and mega-cap results will test whether the AI trade is still expanding or merely refinancing itself. The tell is not the headline capex number but per-share economics: Meta's US$95 billion total raise is roughly 6% dilutive, and if Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon lift capex while also issuing or signalling fresh equity, the multiple on each share falls even if the total AI pie grows. Watch whether guidance upgrades outpace share-count increases — that is the cleanest way to separate sector rotation from money actually leaving the trade.

Sources: The Business Times, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Reuters.

This briefing is compiled with AI assistance from market data and wire reports, and reviewed by the Longbridge editorial team before publication.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.