US equities enter the peak week of third-quarter earnings on a split tape. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,659.44, down 1.95% on the week, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,140.03, down 4.48%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.67% to 52,002.41. Singapore's Straits Times Index was steadier at 5,415.53, up 0.25%. The central tension this week is whether Big Tech earnings can validate the capital spending behind the AI trade.

Earnings calendar

Wednesday after the close is the week's centre of gravity, with Tesla and Meta reporting the same evening. Consensus looks for revenue of about $28.1bn from Tesla and $63.4bn from Meta, and the argument is no longer whether AI investment continues but whether profit growth can keep pace with it. Netflix opens the slate on Tuesday after the close, arriving with subscriber growth slowing, roughly 1,000 roles cut — about 6% of staff — and a $2.8bn break fee booked after walking away from the Warner Bros. deal; the focus is whether advertising revenue can offset the deceleration. Texas Instruments, Lam Research and Thursday's Western Digital print carry the read-across for analogue demand, wafer-fab equipment orders and memory and storage pricing.

There are no SGX-listed results in this week's calendar, so the local reporting season stays quiet until the banks and REITs resume.

Economic calendar

The US data slate is thin. Monday brings the NAHB housing market index, expected at 32, unchanged from the prior reading; Tuesday adds September housing starts, seen at 1.305m from 1.275m, and building permits at 1.395m from 1.403m. The heavier releases sit offshore: China reports third-quarter GDP on Monday, with consensus at 4.4% year on year against 4.3% prior, alongside September industrial production expected at 5.5%, retail sales at 0.6% and new home prices previously down 3% year on year. China's one-year loan prime rate follows on Tuesday, with the prior at 3.00%, and the euro zone current account and Japan's September trade balance round out the week. No major central bank is scheduled to meet.

US: what to watch

The AI trade is the swing factor. Nvidia shares fell 12.2% to $214 after breaking below an ascending wedge and its 50-day moving average, a move that coincided with renewed bubble warnings attributed to David Rosenberg and Ray Dalio; the company's second-quarter revenue topped $104bn, the forward multiple sits near 22 times and a $150bn buyback is in place, so the drawdown is a positioning story as much as a fundamental one. The Nvidia GTC event this week is the other sentiment marker. Microsoft offers the template for the bulls — Azure revenue crossed $100bn, up 41%, Copilot paid seats reached 30m and capital spending is running at $175bn — yet reports that it cancelled a compute lease with UK cloud provider Nscale put construction delays and power constraints back on the agenda. Watch Tesla's margin commentary and Meta's spending guidance for the read-through to suppliers.

Singapore: what to watch

The STI's 0.25% weekly gain against a 4.48% drop on the Nasdaq is the tell: an index weighted towards banks and dividend payers trades with a shallower beta to US technology. With no local top-tier data and no SGX results due, direction will come from overseas. The three local banks — DBS, OCBC and UOB — remain the index anchors to watch, and SGX itself is a useful barometer of local risk appetite. The read-across from hyperscaler capex commentary matters for Singapore's data-centre and technology supply-chain names, which have traded as AI proxies.

Risks to watch

Crude is the first wildcard. Brent has held near $110 a barrel and WTI around $98.38 as Middle East shipping attacks and strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure keep supply recovery uncertain, which feeds directly into inflation expectations and transport costs. Copper is the second: with US tariffs still unresolved, traders who positioned for a tariff-driven rally are reassessing, and a reversal would hit miners and industrials. The third is execution risk in AI infrastructure, where power and construction delays can slip orders even when demand holds. And guidance, not the print, is the earnings risk: a cautious outlook from Tesla, Meta or Texas Instruments would land on a market already marking down technology exposure.

For information only; not investment advice.