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Microsoft (MSFT +0.17%) hosts Ignite, its yearly conference for business customers and partners, from Tuesday, Nov. 17, to Friday, Nov. 20, at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. CEO Satya Nadella is due to give the opening keynote on Tuesday morning, with Judson Althoff, who leads Microsoft's commercial business.

Microsoft reported results for its fiscal first quarter of 2027 (the period ended Sept. 30, 2026) on Oct. 28. It skipped a figure it had included in each of its three prior reports: the count of paid seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot, its artificial intelligence (AI) assistant for office work. The latest count, from July, was over 30 million.

The stock trades around $521 as of this writing, about 6% below the record $555.80 it closed at on Nov. 4. With shares still near that high, I think the Copilot news that would matter most at Ignite is a new count of who's paying for it.

Image source: Getty Images.

From seat counts to usage stats

Microsoft began 2026 by putting a number on Copilot. On its January earnings call, Nadella said the company had 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats. By the April call, the total topped 20 million. And by the July call, it crossed 30 million, with net seat additions more than doubling from the last quarter.

The October call took another approach. Nadella said daily Copilot users climbed almost 50% from the last quarter and more than fivefold year over year. Customers with more than 50,000 Copilot seats increased more than eightfold year over year, he added, and the count of customers using Copilot credits with usage-based billing grew more than 75% in the quarter.

"[W] e did not disclose, to answer your direct question, an update on the Copilot number this quarter. We talked about momentum in revenue and usage," CFO Amy Hood said when an analyst asked about it on the call. She did say Copilot revenue growth picked up from the previous quarter, with continued adoption in Microsoft 365, GitHub, and security. Yet she didn't share a dollar figure.

These are strong usage numbers. But they don't show how many Copilot seats customers are paying for. And as more customers pay by usage, a seat count might become a less complete gauge of the business over time.

What did last year's Ignite bring?

At last year's event in November 2025, Microsoft's Copilot news was mainly about products. It introduced Agent 365, a tool for managing and securing a company's AI agents. It also unveiled Work IQ, which helps Copilot understand a user's job and company. And it announced Microsoft 365 Copilot Business for companies with under 300 users, at $21 per user per month starting December.

On adoption, Microsoft said over 90% of the Fortune 500 use Microsoft 365 Copilot -- a usage number, not a paid one. The paid count came two months later, on the January call.

Copilot is still small next to Microsoft

Microsoft lists the Microsoft 365 Copilot add-on for big businesses at $30 per user per month. Even if all 30 million seats paid that full price (unlikely, given discounts and bundles), Copilot would bring in about $11 billion a year.

Still, Microsoft posted about $347 billion in revenue over the last four quarters, so even that generous estimate is roughly 3% of the total. By comparison, the Microsoft Cloud business alone took in $63.9 billion in the fiscal first quarter, up 30% year over year.

Microsoft's non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share were $18.04 for the four quarters through September.

MSFT - Microsoft

$523.88+$0.88 (+0.17%)

NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 11/13/26

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Key data points

Market capMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.$3.89T

Day's range$513.82 - $526.42

52wk range$349.20 - $559.15

Volume26.2M

Avg volume23.1M

Gross margin67.66%

Dividend yield0.69%

At about $521, the stock trades at roughly 29 times adjusted earnings, down from about 31 times adjusted earnings at the Nov. 4 record.

At that price, investors pay for years of AI-driven growth, and Copilot is arguably the part of it Microsoft now shares the least about.

What could change my mind?

A paid seat count far above 30 million, or even better a revenue number for Copilot, would show the assistant becoming a business big enough to move results at a company this size. Ignite may not bring either. But Microsoft's January report could be the likelier place for it.

For shareholders, nothing here looks like a reason to sell ahead of that. But I'd want to see what Copilot brings in before paying around 29 times adjusted earnings for new shares.