Ahead of BABA-W (09988.HK) +1.800 (+1.682%) Short selling $1.38B; Ratio 17.944% 's September-quarter results announcement, JPMorgan lowered its non-GAAP EPS forecasts for FY2027 and FY2028 by 9% and 10%, respectively. It raised its FY2027 non-GAAP EBITDA forecast by 8% while lowering its FY2028 non-GAAP EBITDA forecast by 4%. The Hong Kong-listed shares TP was cut from HKD205 to HKD195, while the Overweight rating was maintained.

The broker's view was based on cloud EBITA expected to exceed losses from AI models and applications for the first time in the December quarter, allowing cloud growth to start contributing to group earnings. A longer infrastructure construction cycle extended the growth runway, but it also led to depreciation before utilization improves, delayed first-year cloud revenue due to pending capacity deployment, and lower interest income as cash is redirected to computing power investments. Depreciation is a real cost, and shareholder returns depend on returns on assets, financing costs, and the economic interests retained by BABA-W. The broker's FY2027/FY2028 non-GAAP EBITDA forecasts remain 14%/30% above consensus.

The broker predicted AI Labs and application losses in the September quarter to total about RMB10 billion. Cloud revenue was estimated to grow 53% YoY, with EBITA margin further rising to 12.4%. It also measured cloud and AI EBITA to turn positive in the December quarter, reflecting revenue growth accelerating to more than 55% YoY and cloud margin exceeding 15%. For e-commerce, the broker expected CMR to grow about 1% YoY, while Taobao and Tmall Group (TTG) EBITA remains flat YoY, with Quick Commerce losses reaching about RMB9.2 billion.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-10-09 16:25.)