Former hedge fund manager Martin Shkreli says he is short Micron Technology Inc., just two months after declaring, "I like Micron right now," as the AI-driven memory shortage sent prices and profits soaring.

Micron has surged roughly 280% this year as tight memory supplies have driven prices higher. Shkreli is now betting against the durability of that boom as memory manufacturers add capacity and Chinese producer CXMT ramps advanced DRAM production.

Shkreli Flips on Micron

In July, Shkreli estimated Micron could generate roughly $200 billion in earnings through 2027 and said there was "no reason to not like it."

Even then, he warned that much of Micron’s business remained commodity DRAM and that additional Chinese supply could eventually challenge the shortage.

His position is different now. In his latest livestream, Shkreli said he is short Micron, partly as an offset to a desk that was "long everything."

However, he said a decline in memory prices now would be "extremely surprising," suggesting he does not think the cycle has turned yet.

But he was clear about the risk he is watching.

"If prices drop, it’s all over," Shkreli said. "Price is everything," he added, pointing to CXMT and other memory manufacturers adding capacity.

The rest of Shkreli’s desk is not uniformly bearish on memory. One trader is long roughly $1 million of SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) against a much smaller Intel short. Shkreli called the SanDisk position a "momentum AI play," while separately saying semiconductor stocks broadly look expensive.

Polymarket traders put about a 32% chance on Micron touching $1,200 before September ends as of Wednesday, though the market has attracted only about $14,300 in trading.

Bulls See Tight Supply Until 2028

The real disagreement between Shkreli and the bulls is timing.

Steve Neamtz, CEO of Yorkville America, told Benzinga last week that factories capable of materially easing the shortage may not reach full production until 2028 or 2029.

Producing high-bandwidth memory requires roughly three times the manufacturing capacity per gigabyte of conventional memory, Neamtz said, while major suppliers have already committed their 2026 HBM output.

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has similarly said supply should gradually improve in 2028 but that the company has no "line of sight" on when it will catch demand.

Neamtz acknowledged oversupply could eventually emerge if new capacity arrives as AI demand slows.

Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close Sept. 30. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $31.33 per share, up from $3.03 a year earlier, according to Benzinga Pro.