On Polymarket, the market-implied probability that Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks before December 31 is 74%, up 30.5 percentage points over 24 hours from about 45% a week earlier, on $63K of 24h volume. Reuters reported on October 21, citing Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, that Russia is "in principle ready" to resume trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine talks around November 10, with Abu Dhabi seen as a possible venue. The same report, citing a US official who asked not to be named, said earlier talks in St Petersburg covered security guarantees and post-war economic arrangements among the core elements of a peace framework. The contract settles on January 1, 2027, and whether the talks go ahead as scheduled is still unresolved.

Market Implication

Geopolitical events give no single-direction signal for asset prices: de-escalation and a breakdown in talks carry opposite implications for energy supply and risk appetite. This probability reading is therefore better treated as a cross-check spanning both energy supply and risk appetite than as a directional call on any single sector. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)

Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

Bitcoin hits $85K in October: on Polymarket the contract is priced at 48%, down 24.5 percentage points over 24 hours on $126K of 24h volume, easing from about 73% a day earlier; a week ago it stood at about 48%.

Bitcoin below $80K on October 19-25: the contract sits at 40%, up 21 percentage points over 24 hours on $74K of 24h volume, from about 19% a day earlier; a week ago it was also around 40%.

US-Iran ceasefire through October 31: the probability is 74% on Polymarket, down 8 percentage points over 24 hours on $434K of 24h volume, from about 82% a day earlier and about 80% a week ago.

Texas governor race: the implied probability for Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa rose to 36%, up 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours on $56K of 24h volume, from about 27% a day earlier and about 23% a week ago.

Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.

Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.