By William Gavin

SpaceX merger commentary is arguably the biggest thing on the minds of Tesla investors right now - and Musk had nothing new to offer on Wednesday

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday didn't have anything new to say about the prospect of a SpaceX merger.

Elon Musk just gave Tesla investors plenty to chew on - that is, unless they were hoping for more clarity about a possible merger with SpaceX.

"We will not be addressing any questions today on a potential merger with SpaceX," Travis Axelrod, Tesla's (TSLA) head of investor relations, said as he opened up the company's third-quarter earnings call Wednesday to analysts' questions.

While some on Wall Street view a combination as more of an inevitable reality and less a mere possibility, Musk recently reminded investors that nothing is guaranteed. He warned SpaceX (SPCX) investors on Tuesday that talks between the boards of it and Tesla, each of which he leads as CEO, are early and a combination isn't certain.

Musk has likened talking about any merger activity to "tap dancing through a minefield," though he's been a bit more open on social media. He called an analyst's discussion of his companies, which included a hypothetical 30% premium paid on Tesla's share price in the event of a merger, "interesting."

Tesla has a roughly $1.48 trillion market capitalization, while SpaceX is worth about $2 trillion.

His comments have gotten investors riled up, with merger talk now a hotter topic than even robotaxis or spending. Tesla shares rose 3.4% in Wednesday's regular session, following Musk's comments on the SpaceX call. But the stock was set to give back essentially all those gains based on Wednesday's after-hours action.

"In our view, investor sentiment surrounding the story has shifted, moving from concerns about the cash burn associated with the major capex cycle it appears to be entering, to questions surrounding the potential merger with SpaceX," wrote CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson in a note to clients.

Nelson views the merger as a near certainty, likely happening by the end of 2027. SpaceX and Tesla have grown closer, working together on the Terafab chip-making project among other things.

While some may argue that Tesla and SpaceX have entirely different priorities - one is a carmaker and the other has aims to colonize Mars with giant rockets - both are leaning heavily on artificial intelligence. Dan Levy, an analyst at Barclays, thinks a merger would help the pair accelerate their work on the Terafab and give Musk greater control on his road to creating what some call "Elon, Inc."

The Terafab is an expensive chip plant that would integrate design, fabrication, advanced packaging and more. Tesla plans to begin commissioning equipment for a planned facility in its hometown of Austin, Texas, in 2027, it told investors on Wednesday.

-William Gavin

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