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Meta's $145 Billion AI Bet Doesn't Scare This Bull: Why He Thinks Bears Are Wrong

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Meta Platforms reported strong Q3 results with $64.6B revenue and beat earnings estimates, despite negative free cash flow. The company raised its 2026 capex guidance to $135-145B for AI investments. Analysts are divided: David Wagner argues AI spending concerns are overblown, while Gene Munster sees Muse as a future growth engine. However, Brent Thill calls for more visibility on Muse monetization and 2027 spending impacts.

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) remains at the center of the artificial intelligence investment debate as analysts weigh strong advertising growth and the long-term potential of its Muse AI platform against soaring capital spending and uncertainty over monetization.

Meta reported third-quarter revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26% year over year and above analysts’ estimate of $63.37 billion. Adjusted earnings of $7.40 per share beat the $5.74 consensus estimate.

Ad impressions increased 10%, while the average price per ad rose 14%. However, free cash flow turned negative at $2.12 billion.

For the fourth quarter, Meta forecast revenue of $73 billion to $76 billion, compared with the $73.74 billion consensus estimate.

The company also raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $135 billion to $145 billion and increased its expense guidance to $175 billion to $179 billion.

Wagner Says Capex Concerns Look Overblown

Aptus Capital Advisors portfolio manager David Wagner told CNBC on Thursday that concerns around Meta’s rising debt and AI spending are overstated because hyperscalers still carry much stronger debt coverage than the broader market.

He said that Meta may raise more debt or equity as spending climbs, but he sees no sign that AI investment is slowing. Wagner argued that one company’s capital spending becomes another company’s revenue, supporting the broader AI ecosystem.

He remains bullish on Meta and believes the burden of proof still sits with AI bears.

Munster Calls Muse Meta’s Future

Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster told CNBC on Thursday that Muse represents Meta’s future platform and could eventually reshape engagement across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

He sees commerce as the leading near-term use case and believes personalized agents could eventually handle product discovery and transactions across the internet.

Munster estimated Muse may currently have roughly 10 million daily users, leaving substantial room for growth against Meta’s multibillion-user ecosystem.

He also expects Meta’s AI spending to rise further. With Street expectations near $196 billion in 2027 capex, Munster said spending could ultimately exceed $225 billion. He also expects Meta may need to raise another $25 billion-$50 billion in capital.

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Wang Says Advertising Remains Strong

Constellation Research’s Ray Wang told CNBC on Thursday that Meta is using its large data sets to create a consumer AI flywheel between Muse, advertising and its social platforms.

He believes Muse can strengthen engagement while driving additional advertiser interest.

Wang also highlighted Meta’s advertising business, saying it remains strong, with election-year spending providing another potential tailwind.

Thill Wants More Detail on Muse

Jefferies senior software analyst Brent Thill told CNBC on Thursday that Meta delivered strong revenue growth and broadly steady fourth-quarter guidance, but investors need more visibility into Muse’s impact and the company’s 2027 spending trajectory.

He sees several potential Muse monetization paths, including advertising, subscriptions, token purchases and AI-enabled devices.

Thill also expects AI capital expenditures across hyperscalers to rise materially in 2027, potentially pressuring free cash flow in the near term.

Across the four views, Meta’s core ad business and Muse adoption support the bull case, while capital intensity, financing needs and the timing of AI monetization remain the key challenges.

META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were down 3.15% at $675.55 during premarket trading on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Photo via Shutterstock

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