Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are trending on Thursday as analysts react to the company’s third-quarter earnings and talk of a SpaceX merger.

• Tesla stock is trending higher. Why is TSLA stock trading lower?

Needham Holds Tesla On Merger Doubts

Needham analyst Chris Pierce maintained a Hold rating on Tesla following the company’s quarterly results. Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.05 billion and adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share after the close on Wednesday, beating estimates on the top and bottom lines.

Despite the double beat, Pierce believes SpaceX Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) merger chatter could limit how high Tesla stock climbs. The stock trades near 30 times Needham’s 2030 adjusted EBITDA estimate, discounted back, so Needham expects buyers to pay only a small premium.

Pierce called autonomy a bright spot. U.S. automakers offer little competition, and over three-quarters of North American deliveries came with a paid Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription. Tesla’s backlog is the biggest in four years, and factory output, rather than orders, now holds back deliveries. Even so, Needham flagged uncertainty over margins after repeated price cuts.

Cantor Backs Tesla Overweight On Autonomy

Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard stayed at Overweight on Tesla and left the price target at $485, suggesting significant upside. Sheppard highlighted cash flow: Tesla generated about $1.5 billion, while analysts expected a $4.4 billion outflow. The company also now plans $20 billion of capital spending this year instead of $25 billion.

Autonomy drove the rest of the positive note. Tesla added roughly 260,000 FSD customers in the quarter, beating the 200,000 or so from the second, and lifted its base to 1.74 million. Four more European approvals also put FSD in nine EU nations. Robotaxi usage is ramping too: cumulative miles climbed to about 2 million from roughly 380,000 a quarter earlier. Cybercab began commercial service in Austin and is headed to Dallas next. Cantor considers an eventual SpaceX merger likely.

StoneX Says Buy Tesla After Earnings

StoneX analyst Mickey Legg maintained a Buy rating on Tesla with a $475 price target. That target sits 23% above the current price and leaves out any merger premium. Rising operating costs led Legg to lower adjusted EPS estimates: 5.6% for 2026, 11% for 2027 and 10.5% for 2028.

Legg called part of the earnings beat temporary. Working capital contributed about $2.6 billion, capital spending landed roughly $3 billion below consensus, and one-time items such as tariff refunds and warranty true-downs also helped. Spending on operations ran higher than Legg modeled: $4.8 billion, or $597 million more. Legg sees the lower capex target as a delay: spending should climb again as the robotaxi fleet, Optimus and a chip fab grow.

On the merger, committees at both companies have set no terms, and Elon Musk is recused. A deal needs a yes from holders of a majority of all outstanding Tesla shares. SpaceX was worth about 1.2 times Tesla at Wednesday’s close. Legg’s math, using annualized third-quarter adjusted EBITDA per share, shows accretion for Tesla holders and dilution for SpaceX holders at any premium. Legg flags a conflicted CEO and a high vote hurdle as risks.

Several analyst firms issued updates following Tesla’s quarterly results. Tesla has a consensus Buy rating among analysts with an average $404.59 price forecast.

TSLA Shares Are Moving Higher

TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were trading at $386.79 at the time of publication on Thursday, up 0.09% on the day, according to Benzinga Pro.

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