CIM

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings Monday after the bell, days after overtaking Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) as the world’s most valuable company.

Analysts expect $1.99 per share on $113.4 billion in revenue, while Earnings Whispers puts its unofficial EPS target at $2.07.

More than $81,000 has traded on Kalshi contracts predicting new CEO John Ternus’s first earnings call. Traders expect Siri and manufacturing to feature, but not the partners behind them.

What Kalshi Predicts Apple Will Say

“iPhone 18” leads at 98%. Counterpoint found early Pro-series sales grew 3.1% globally, with China up 29% but the U.S. down 4% and Japan down 27%.

“Fold/Folding/Foldable” sits at 86%. Apple’s $1,999 iPhone Duo sold out rapidly after preorders opened, but some owners reported cracked screens within days. Apple acknowledged the defects and offered replacements, saying a small number of devices were affected. Executives could discuss the Duo without using any of those three terms.

“Tariff” trades at 96% and “Manufacturing” at 93%. Tariff refunds added two percentage points to Apple’s June-quarter gross margin, lifting it to 50.1%. Apple guided in July for just 47% to 48% in the September quarter, despite expecting further refunds.

“Siri” trades at 96%, with “Private Cloud Compute” at 72%. Apple’s revamped assistant uses Google-developed models and privacy-focused cloud infrastructure.

“Formula 1/F1” sits at 77%, against 24% for “Streaming.” Apple broadcasts F1 in the U.S. Executives warned last quarter that the previous year’s F1 movie set a tough Services comparison.

“Mac Studio” trades at 66%. Its M5 Ultra model gained a 512GB memory option October 28, priced at $22,299.

“Creator Studio” sits at 52%. Apple last week unveiled AI assistants that draft documents, create presentations and analyze spreadsheets using its own and OpenAI’s models. The tools are part of its $12.99-a-month subscription.

What Kalshi Predicts Apple Will Skip

“Broadcom” trades at 23%. Apple named Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) on its last earnings call while discussing a chip agreement exceeding $30 billion. Traders now expect manufacturing talk without naming the supplier.

“Gemini” sits at 15%, despite Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) supplying models underpinning Siri. “OpenAI/ChatGPT” stands at 21%, even after last week’s Creator Studio announcement.

Reading the Board

Investors have rewarded Apple for largely sitting out the AI spending race, even as billions in data center investments have weighed on rival technology stocks.

Shares have gained roughly 27% this year, helping Apple overtake Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company.

But Apple still needs to deliver growth. Analysts expect around $153 billion in holiday-quarter revenue, up just 6% from last year, compared with the nearly 11% growth expected for September. Weak iPhone sales in the U.S. and Japan and rising memory costs add to the pressure.

On Polymarket, traders still give Nvidia a 56% chance of finishing 2026 as the world’s most valuable company, against Apple’s 44%.

The question is whether Apple’s cheaper AI strategy can support the growth needed to justify its $5 trillion valuation.

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