Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports third-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, a day after CEO Elon Musk confirmed that independent committees are exploring a merger with SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).

Analysts expect adjusted earnings of 43 cents a share on $27.88 billion in revenue, both below year-ago levels.

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles last quarter, beating estimates but falling 2% year over year. Shares are down roughly 17% this year.

Polymarket gives Tesla just a 36% chance of beating earnings expectations, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on what Musk and his team will say.

What Kalshi Predicts Tesla Will Say

“Cybercab” and “Robotaxi” both trade at 99%. Tesla has registered nearly 350 Cybercabs in Austin, but only 187 are active, according to MarketWatch.

“Terafab” sits at 92%. Musk said Tuesday that his chipmaking project aims to produce its first test chip by mid-2027, with volume production targeted for 2028.

“Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation” trades at 91%. Federal safety officials are investigating whether Tesla’s steering-wheel-free Cybercab complies with vehicle safety standards, potentially complicating its expansion.

“SpaceX / xAI” stands at 89%, although either name qualifies. Musk outlined potential benefits of a merger Tuesday, including shared AI software, chipmaking and robotics. He cautioned that no deal is guaranteed.

“Competition” trades at 75%. Tesla lost its global electric-vehicle sales crown to China’s BYD last year, while analysts expect automotive revenue to fall nearly 7% this quarter despite better-than-expected deliveries.

“Samsung” trades at 68%. Tesla already has a $16.5 billion agreement with Samsung Electronics to manufacture its AI6 chips, even as Musk pursues his own factories to meet future demand.

“Megapack 3” trades at 66%. Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage last quarter, up nearly 10%, with analysts expecting $3.7 billion in energy revenue. Its energy division chief, Mike Snyder, departed last week as the company expands battery production in Texas.

What Kalshi Predicts Tesla Will Skip

“Intel” sits at 47%, despite Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) joining the Terafab initiative in April. Its precise role remains unclear.

“Merge / Merger” sits at 42%, up six points. Independent board committees are handling negotiations, with Musk recusing himself over conflicts of interest. That may limit what management says about a possible deal.

“Safety Monitor” trades at 40%. These are employees who ride in Tesla’s robotaxis to supervise operations, although some vehicles now operate without one.

“Waymo” trades at just 29%. Traders expect plenty of robotaxi talk, but not necessarily a mention of Tesla’s driverless rival, owned by Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL).

Reading the Board

Goldman Sachs says updates on robotaxis, Full Self-Driving and Optimus may matter more to Tesla shares than quarterly earnings.

But analysts expect Tesla’s capital spending to more than triple from a year ago, reaching nearly $7.8 billion this quarter, against just $3.3 billion in operating cash flow.

That would leave Tesla burning approximately $4.5 billion in cash after capital spending, as Musk pours money into robotaxis, humanoid robots and chipmaking.

Investor Ross Gerber suggested Musk deliberately scheduled SpaceX’s earnings first to showcase the stronger business.

“This is a good part of Elon’s empire, and we will see the bad news part tomorrow,” Gerber told Bloomberg Tuesday.

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