Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell below $81,000 Thursday, with $489 million liquidated across crypto markets in a single hour, as three separate catalysts hit at once.

Catalyst One: The Government Moved $1 Billion in Bitcoin

Arkham data showed Thursday that wallets linked to the US government moved 12,267 BTC, worth about $1.01 billion, from a Bitfinex hack seizure wallet to new, unlabeled addresses according to Coindesk. 

No exchange deposit showed up in the transaction, a pattern that points to wallet reshuffling rather than a sale.

The move followed heavier exchange-bound activity a day earlier, when roughly 3,200 BTC, worth about $264 million, along with $119 million in USDT landed at Coinbase Prime deposit addresses. 

Those funds traced back to wallets tied to the FTX/Alameda and Bitfinex seizures.

Meanwhile, widely-followed prediction market Kalshi Crypto posted on X that its traders forecast Bitcoin crashing to $78,000 this month following the transfer.

Catalyst Two: Trump Is Weighing Pre-Midterm Strikes on Iran

The Atlantic reported Wednesday that the White House asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iran that could happen before the Nov. 3 midterms. 

US Central Command is drawing up the plans, though officials caution that limited strikes wouldn’t restore safe travel through the Strait of Hormuz or lower gas prices before Election Day.

Oil prices have typically risen when the U.S. resumes strikes after a pause, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a dynamic that adds fresh uncertainty to risk assets like crypto heading into the vote.

Trump denied plans to attack Iran “at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” on Thursday on Truth Social, though Bitcoin failed to recover.

Catalyst Three: The Fed Signals Another Hike Is Coming

Meeting minutes released Wednesday showed Fed officials expect another interest rate hike before year-end to combat inflation that’s run above target for more than five years as reported by CNBC. 

The Fed meets next on Oct. 28 and again on Dec. 9, though the minutes gave no specific timing for the move.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed core PCE at 3% for August, still above the 2% target. 

Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen since 2002, a trend officials linked to rate expectations, AI-driven economic growth, and uncertainty around the Treasury’s buyback program.

How the Crypto Market Reacted

Bitcoin is breaking through the $81,000 range floor that had held for the past month.

Price broke below its 20-day EMA at $83,263 but stayed above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, keeping the broader uptrend technically alive.

Meanwhile, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) down 6% after breaking below its 20-day EMA and rising trendline from August’s low. RSI dropped to 38.07, nearing oversold territory. 

Moreover, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell 6% and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) dropped 7% in the same selloff.

Key levels for BTC:

• $79,600: 50-day EMA, key support

Key levels for XRP:

• $1.40: 50-day EMA, resistance above
• $1.33: 100-day EMA, critical support

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