SpaceX's Next Big Business Is on the Ground, TD Cowen Says
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.TD Cowen initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, identifying terrestrial AI compute leasing as the company's primary future revenue driver. Analyst John Blackledge forecasts that AI leasing will become the majority of revenue by Q1 2027, driven by capacity expansion to 6 gigawatts by end-2027. Starship is also cited as a growth catalyst for government missions. The stock currently trades around $148, with Wall Street consensus showing strong bullish sentiment.
TD Cowen initiated coverage of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) on Tuesday with a Buy rating. The firm argues that leasing AI computing capacity will soon become the company’s biggest business.
Analyst John Blackledge set a $200 price target, implying about 37% upside from Monday’s close of $145.47.
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AI Leasing Takes the Lead
According to CNBC, Blackledge expects “SpaceX’s terrestrial AI compute leasing (with customers including Google and Anthropic) to comprise the company’s fastest-growing revenue stream and majority of overall SPCX revenue by 1Q27, driven by ramping terrestrial GW capacity.”
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), Google’s parent, is one of those customers. He forecasts SpaceX’s capacity will climb from 2.1 gigawatts in 2026 to 6 gigawatts by the end of 2027, close to triple.
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“The biggest near-term driver of SPCX revenue is leasing terrestrial AI compute capacity to frontier labs and other companies given the current AI supply and demand imbalance,” Blackledge said, per CNBC.
“SPCX currently has four customers leasing or starting to lease AI compute capacity in ’26, including Anthropic and Alphabet. We estimate SPCX will generate AI compute leasing revenue of ~$8.1BN in 4Q26, exiting 12/26 with a $41BN [annual recurring revenue].”
Starship Adds Another Leg
The analyst also named Starship as a growth driver after SpaceX’s giant rocket reached orbit on Monday.
“Starship opens up the opportunity for more complex government missions (e.g., lunar missions, Mars, etc.), and thus Launch and Development revenue should exceed Launch Services revenue (circa Q1:30),” he said.
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Shares Still Well Off Highs
SpaceX went public in June at $135 a share in the largest IPO in history. The stock rallied as high as $225.64 and then quickly gave up much of the move.
Monday’s close was about 35% below that peak and about 8% above the IPO price. Shares were up 0.7% at $146.46 early Tuesday.
Wall Street Leans Bullish on SPCX
Most of the Street shares TD Cowen’s view. Benzinga data shows 26 of the 32 analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy, for a consensus rating of Buy. Of the rest, five rate it Hold and one rates it Sell.
The average price target of $226 implies about 54% upside.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was up 1.99% at $148.36 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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