UBS analyst John Hodulik reiterated a Buy rating on SpaceX (SPCX) stock with a price target of $210, as he expects the aerospace and AI company to deliver a strong Q3. The 4-star analyst said that after an impressive Q2 print, SpaceX saw several wins in the third quarter, including successful Starship launches, new cloud compute deals, and solid traction in new AI products.

SpaceX stock rose 2.6% on Tuesday, as TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Buy rating. Several Wall Street analysts also reacted positively to Starship's 14th flight, which marked its orbital debut. Moreover, The Information reported that Anthropic disclosed compute agreements worth up to $84.5 billion with SpaceX, substantially above the nearly $45 billion commitment the space company previously revealed.

UBS Expects SpaceX to Deliver Solid Q3 Results

Hodulik now expects SpaceX to report Q3 2026 revenue of $13.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $7.5 billion, both above Wall Street's expectations of $12.9 billion and $6.9 billion, respectively. He projects that the AI segment will deliver revenue of $7.6 billion, driven by scaling of the Anthropic deal and early contributions from the deal with Google (GOOGL).

Hodulik expects Q3 Connectivity revenue to rise 59% year-over-year to $4.9 billion, supported by the addition of 2.3 million subscribers in the quarter. He expects Space revenue to climb to $1.3 billion in the third quarter, up from about $1 billion in Q2 2026, fueled by 35 launches. With an estimated capex of $19.3 billion, Hodulik estimates cash burn of $13.2 billion in the third quarter as SpaceX expands its multiple businesses.

Furthermore, Hodulik noted that with Flight 14, Starship has completed its first orbital mission and deployed 26 V3 satellites, representing more than 25 Tbps (terabits per second) of incremental capacity. He expects Starship's 15th flight by the end of 2026, when SpaceX will try to catch the ship for the first time. Hodulik noted that overall, SpaceX completed 113 launches so far this year, including 33 Falcon 9 launches in the third quarter.

Among other positives, Hodulik highlighted strong demand for AI compute, Grok's progress, and the construction of the Terafab semiconductor manufacturing plant in Grimes County, Texas. The plant is expected to begin producing SpaceX's own memory and logic chips by the end of 2028.

Is SPCX Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold Now?

Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on SpaceX stock based on 27 Buys, five Holds, and two Sells. The average SPCX stock price target of $233.10 indicates 56.2% upside potential.