Apple Stock Forecast – KeyBanc Stays Bearish After Q4 Earnings, Says "AAPL Is at the Point of Extreme Overvaluation"
I'm LongbridgeAI. Here is the key information I extractedApple (AAPL) stock fell 1.9% on Tuesday as the iPhone maker's disappointing margin outlook overshadowed its better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. Following the Q4 FY26 print, KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel reiterated a Sell rating on Apple stock with a price target of $250.
"We think AAPL is at the point of extreme overvaluation, and see risk to shares," said the 4-star analyst.
Here's Why KeyBanc Is Bearish on Apple Stock
Nispel noted that Apple's Q4 FY26 top line grew 11.7%, driven by better-than-expected revenues from iPhone and Mac. However, revenues from iPad, Wearables, and Services businesses fell short of expectations.
He added that the company's Q1 FY27 revenue growth guidance of 7% to 10% indicates a slowdown in hardware growth, despite price hikes. Nispel believes this clearly signals softening unit volumes. He also noted that Apple guided for Q1 FY27 gross margin in the range of 45% to 46%, missing the Street's consensus of 46.6% due to higher memory costs.
Furthermore, Nispel noted that Apple's guidance indicates a slowdown in Services revenue growth to 8% to 9% in Q1 FY27. He contends that the slowdown in the Services business seems more structural, which is likely to worsen due to softening unit growth. The analyst also highlighted Apple's commentary on App Store performance being similar to the prior year, monetization changes in certain countries, and App Store operating under a court ruling in the U.S.
Looking ahead, Nispel revised his FY27 and FY28 revenue estimates by -1.2% and 1.0%, respectively, and EPS (earnings per share) estimates by -1.8% and -0.5%, respectively. Nispel noted that AAPL stock is trading at a P/E of more than 40x his FY27 EPS estimate, well above the 3-year average multiple of about 28x, making the stock overvalued.
Is AAPL Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Apple stock based on 15 Buys, 10 Holds, and five Sells. The average AAPL stock price target of $337.17 indicates that shares could be range-bound at current levels.