EHLD

November opens with firmer futures and cheaper oil, but AI spending concerns, Binance withdrawals and Tuesday’s US elections keep traders cautious.

📈 Futures recover after October’s tech rout

• Nasdaq futures climbed roughly 0.8% early Monday, while S&P 500 contracts gained 0.4%. The rebound follows a nearly 7% October decline for the Nasdaq, leaving investors looking for evidence that technology earnings can restore confidence after a difficult month.
• Apple and Palantir report after Monday’s close, offering two different lines of technology demand. Apple puts consumer spending and holiday prospects under scrutiny, while Palantir provides a read on AI software adoption. AMD follows Tuesday, with Arm and Qualcomm reporting Wednesday.
• Intel’s near-29% Friday plunge leaves semiconductor stocks facing a demanding week. Its outlook disappointed investors already questioning the returns from massive AI infrastructure spending.
• AMD’s results now carry added weight: traders need to see how demand translates into revenue, margins and guidance across different chip businesses.

🌏 Global markets steady before election week

• Asian trading was mixed, with South Korea gaining around 0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei marginally lower. Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX futures edged up 0.1%. Currency moves were modest, with EUR/USD near $1.1170 and USD/JPY around ¥157.75 in the early session.
• Treasury yields remained below October’s peaks, with the US 10-year near 4.94%. Markets still priced roughly a 72% probability of a December Fed hike, however. Lower yields offer some relief for equity valuations, but traders haven’t abandoned expectations of further tightening.
• Tuesday’s US midterm elections add political uncertainty to a busy economic calendar. Monday brings ISM manufacturing, followed by job openings Tuesday, ISM services Wednesday and payrolls Friday. The RBA and Bank of England also decide rates this week, giving the Australian dollar and sterling their own catalysts.

🛢️ Oil retreats, crypto tests its recovery

• Oil offered markets some relief, with Brent down about 2% to $111.15 and WTI off 2.3% at $101.73 in early trading. Iranian-Qatari mediation continued, although attacks on Gulf tankers left supply concerns unresolved. Cheaper crude would help temper one source of inflation pressure.
• Gold recovered toward $3,900 an ounce but optimism remained somewhat capped. Expectations of tighter US monetary policy continue to weigh on the non-yielding metal. This week’s jobs report could influence that balance, with stronger employment potentially reinforcing the case for higher interest rates.
• Bitcoin recovered above $78,000 following Binance’s phased reopening, following the biggest-ever crypto hack. Binance reported $3.64 billion in net customer withdrawals and said it had replaced 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen.