ELVA

• STI: closed Friday at 5,422.16, up 0.1% (7.02 points), with 331 gainers against 258 losers on about S$1.8 billion of turnover.
• Local macro: September core inflation eased to 2.0%, below consensus; MAS held policy in October.
• US overnight: the Dow fell 1.2% (about 653 points) as oil surged on Iran supply fears; the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%.
• This week: Fed decision Wednesday (2:00am SGT Thursday), then Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon earnings.

Singapore Open

The Straits Times Index closed Friday at 5,422.16, up 0.1% or 7.02 points, as 331 gainers outnumbered 258 losers on turnover of about S$1.8 billion. The three local banks all slipped: $DBS (D05.SG)$ fell 0.2% to S$74.44, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ eased 0.2% to S$29.00 and $UOB (U11.SG)$ dropped 0.7% to S$41.59. OCBC remains the STI's best-performing constituent so far this year.

Elsewhere on the blue-chip index, $CapitaLand Investment (9CI.SG)$ led gainers, up 3.9% to S$2.40, while $Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SG)$ was the weakest name, down 1.6% to S$4.88. With crude at a six-month high, watch the energy-services and offshore-marine complex at the open — a tailwind for oil-linked names but a fuel-cost drag for aviation.

Singapore Macro

Singapore's September core inflation slowed to 2.0% from 2.2% in August, coming in below consensus, while headline inflation also moderated. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its 2026 core-inflation forecast at 1.5% to 2.0% after holding policy settings at its October review.

The read-through for SGX: cooler core inflation lowers the urgency for further MAS tightening, keeping the Singapore-dollar NEER and local rate path relatively steady — mildly supportive for the banks' net-interest-margin outlook and for REIT financing costs. Separately, the equity-market reform push is showing results: average daily trading value has climbed above S$2 billion, more than 40% higher than 2025, with Next-50 turnover up 93% year-on-year, according to $SGX (S68.SG)$.

Weekend Wrap

Markets spent the weekend focused on the Middle East. Brent crude pushed above $116 a barrel and WTI toward $103, both around six-month highs, as traders priced in the risk of a US-Israeli strike on Iran and fresh supply disruptions. Renewed Iran-war chatter rattled sentiment, and Reuters noted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched five-week lows on Friday.

The other weekend story is the Fed: the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and markets overwhelmingly expect it to hold rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, though December-hike odds remain elevated around 70% to 90%. That 'hold now, maybe hike later' setup keeps a lid on rate-sensitive assets.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

Friday's US session, which closed early Saturday morning Singapore time, capped a rough week for tech. The Dow fell 1.2%, or about 653 points; the S&P 500 lost 0.5%; and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower while the Dow eked out a small gain as money rotated toward defensive sectors.

The AI-led selloff that began Thursday cooled slightly — the Philadelphia semiconductor index bounced off its 200-day moving average — but the pressure spread to blue chips and AI-infrastructure names.

Key Movers

$Comfort Systems (FIX.US)$ -10.1% — The AI data-center construction firm was the S&P 500's biggest decliner despite third-quarter revenue and profit topping estimates, as investors questioned whether AI-infrastructure spending can keep outpacing already-elevated expectations.

$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$ -11.3% — The fuel-cell maker fell even after raising its fiscal-2026 forecast, caught in the same de-rating of AI-power and data-center names.

$Western Digital (WDC.US)$ -1.8% — The memory and storage maker slipped despite reporting quarterly EPS of $4.64, well above the $4.11 consensus, on revenue up 55.5% year-on-year — evidence that a plain beat no longer shields the chip complex.

Asia Pre-Market

US equity futures were pointing a touch lower early Monday as the oil spike and pre-Fed caution kept risk appetite in check. WTI traded near $103 a barrel and Brent around $116.7. Gold hovered near $3,994 an ounce after a heavy weekly drop, and Bitcoin traded around $80,000.

The signal for the SGX open: higher crude supports the energy-services complex but pressures airlines and consumer names, while the wait for the Fed and Big Tech argues for a cautious start for banks and tech proxies.

This Week's US Earnings Calendar

Earnings Spotlight: $Alphabet (GOOGL.US)$. Alphabet reports after Wednesday's close (4:30pm ET; 4:30am SGT Thursday), with consensus at roughly $3.03 EPS on about $127.9 billion in revenue, up around 25% year-on-year. The focus is Google Cloud — analysts see cloud revenue near $29 billion — and whether AI capital spending, which pushed free cash flow negative last quarter, is starting to convert into monetisation. With the Fed decision landing earlier the same day, the print lands in a high-volatility window.

This Week's US Economic Calendar

One More Thing

Oil is the swing variable this week. If Brent keeps climbing, it lifts the energy-services complex but squeezes margins and revives the December-hike debate, which is bad for rate-sensitive REITs and growth stocks. The cleaner framework is to separate two forces at work: a Middle-East supply premium — tradable and reversible — versus a genuine unwind of AI-valuation froth, which is structural. If the Big Tech prints show cloud revenue and backlog converting while oil stabilises, the correction looks like rotation; if both break the wrong way, treat it as broader de-risking.

Sources: The Business Times, Barron's, Reuters, MarketBeat.

This briefing is compiled with AI assistance from market data and wire reports, and reviewed by the Longbridge editorial team before publication.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.