EMQQ

The Week

Meituan (3690.HK) fell 7.12% this week to close at HK$69.80, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by about 3.8 percentage points (the benchmark dropped 3.32%). The week followed a rise-then-sell-off pattern: shares briefly touched HK$77.40 on Monday, 9 November, then slid for three straight sessions, breaking below HK$72 on Wednesday, 11 November, and hitting a low of HK$69.65 on Thursday, 12 November, before closing near the week’s low. Average daily volume came in around 29.5m shares, about 7.7% above the 60-day median, suggesting heavier turnover on the way down.

Key Events

The dominant thread for Meituan this week was a broker downgrade and the company’s own open-source move. On Monday, 9 November, Morgan Stanley cut Meituan to Equal-weight, citing slowing growth in China’s e-commerce sector and intense competition, while naming Alibaba as its top pick. Meituan shares dropped more than 6% that day, making it one of the weakest names among HK-listed companies with market values above HK$100bn. On Tuesday, 10 November, Meituan open-sourced LongCat-2.5, a model designed for commercial inference deployment and secondary training, which was read as a sign that the company is opening up its technology stack. From Wednesday to Thursday, broader tech weakness in Hong Kong added pressure, with Meituan sliding alongside Alibaba and Tencent.

Analyst Ratings

As of this week, 39 institutions cover Meituan: 25 rate it buy, 6 rate it overweight, 5 rate it hold, 2 rate it underweight, and 1 has no opinion, with no sell ratings. The consensus rating is buy, and the consensus target price is HK$110.38, implying upside of about 58.13% from the latest price. Targets range from HK$63.53 to HK$153.66, a spread of roughly HK$90, pointing to meaningful disagreement among analysts on the long-term value. Within the restaurant industry coverage of 19 names, Meituan ranks first in analyst rating standing.

The Week Ahead

Two things stand out next week. On the macro side, Hong Kong will release unemployment data on Tuesday, 17 November (prior 3.9%), followed by the composite consumer price index on Friday, 20 November (prior 1.9%). These prints will shape expectations around local consumption and liquidity conditions. On the company side, Meituan is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results after market close on Friday, 27 November. Consensus estimates point to EPS of HK$0.1232 and revenue of HK$133bn, implying year-on-year growth of about 104.37% and 24.52%, respectively. A miss or beat on these figures could set the next directional signal.

In Short

This week sets up a tension for Meituan: broadly positive analyst coverage and a wide consensus target price versus near-term selling pressure in the stock and the broader tech sector. Of the 39 covering institutions, 31 rate it buy or overweight, and the consensus target sits about 58% above spot, with Meituan ranked first in its industry. Yet the stock fell 7.12% this week, the latest daily capital snapshot shows large-lot net selling, and tech heavyweights slid across the board. The key test ahead is the 27 November quarterly results, and whether they validate the market’s expectation for revenue and earnings recovery.

This article is generated by LongbridgeAI from market data, for information only and not investment advice.