• STI closed Friday at 5,401.89, down 0.20% and down 4.1% over five sessions; $DBS (D05.SG)$ at S$73.36, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ at S$29.00, $UOB (U11.SG)$ at S$39.96.
• Local catalyst: the bank-led rout is cooling, with eyes on MAS's October policy decision — 45% of economists expect tighter policy.
• US overnight: S&P 500 +0.59%, Nasdaq +0.64%, Dow +0.83% on Friday; the S&P 500 gained 1.15% for the week despite a midweek AI-chip scare.
• Monday schedule: US bond market closed for Columbus Day (stocks open); no major data or earnings until US CPI on Wednesday.

Singapore Open

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 11.07 points, or 0.20%, to close Friday at 5,401.89, extending a 4.1% pullback over five sessions from its September record above 5,800. The retreat has been led by the big three banks, which account for roughly half of the index. $DBS (D05.SG)$ closed at S$73.36, down 0.66%; $OCBC (O39.SG)$ was flat at S$29.00; and $UOB (U11.SG)$ slipped 0.72% to S$39.96. That marks a notable cooldown from early last week, when OCBC fell 5.9% to S$30.30 on Oct 7 after Citi cut it to "sell", citing softer third-quarter 2026 earnings expectations. The selling has been framed as profit-taking and global bank-sector weakness rather than a fundamentals collapse, with brokers still mostly constructive on DBS for dividend safety and UOB for valuation. Outside the banks, $Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ held at S$6.57 and $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ was little changed around S$4.25.

Singapore Macro

The local macro backdrop remains strong but rate-path sensitive. The MAS September survey lifted Singapore's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 3.5%, with headline inflation seen at 2.1% and core inflation at 1.9%; MTI separately upgraded its 2026 GDP range to 4.5%-5.5% after 5.9% year-on-year growth in Q2. Crucially, 45% of survey respondents now expect MAS to tighten policy in October — up from 30% previously — by steepening the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band. The transmission path for SGX investors: energy-driven imported inflation is the risk MAS flagged in its July statement, and any tightening could lift the trade-weighted SGD and weigh on REIT financing costs, while keeping bank net interest margins firmer for longer. With banks so heavily weighted in the STI, the MAS decision this month is the single biggest local macro swing factor.

Weekend Wrap

Oil was the main story into the weekend. President Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to ease Russian diesel export sanctions through 2027 to cool fuel prices ahead of the US midterms; WTI eased on Friday, though Brent's December contract still ended the week up 2.42% at US$104.72. Middle East supply risks remain live, with Houthi attacks on tankers and Hormuz traffic under pressure. Separately, the Financial Times reported on Thursday that OpenAI's annualized revenue was US$20 billion below earlier signals, briefly knocking chip stocks — the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 3.39% — before the market recovered Friday. In Asia, TSMC resumes trading Monday after Taiwan's National Day holiday, setting up its Thursday results as the next big read on AI demand.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

US equities closed higher Friday: the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.54, the Nasdaq Composite 0.64% to 27,366.17, and the Dow 0.83% to 51,654.95. For the week, the S&P 500 added 1.15%, the Nasdaq 0.64% and the Dow 0.93%. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.244%, down from 5.277% a week earlier, after touching 5.311% on Monday — its highest close since 2002. Key movers: a SpaceX agreement to buy a low-band spectrum portfolio for Starlink Mobile hit the wireless carriers, with $T-Mobile (TMUS.US)$ falling 13.27%, $AT&T (T.US)$ 10.82% and $Verizon (VZ.US)$ 10.14%, while tower owners $Crown Castle (CCI.US)$ and $American Tower (AMT.US)$ rose 15.60% and 9.30%. The AI trade split: $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ gained 3.29% and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 2.38%, but $Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ eased 0.52% and fell 2.00% on the week. Defensive leadership was clear, with utilities +3.97% and consumer staples +3.60% versus technology -0.52%.

Asia Pre-Market

US stock futures pointed higher early Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 contracts in the green as AI jitters eased. $Meta (META.US)$ was in focus on reports it is preparing to launch a consumer AI agent called Hatch within weeks. WTI traded around US$91.7 a barrel after Friday's pullback, with Brent near US$104.7; gold rose about 1.5% to around US$4,200 an ounce, and Bitcoin consolidated near US$82,900, up about 0.4%. For SGX, softer oil is a mild tailwind for $Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG)$ fuel costs, while the semis tone hinges on TSMC's Thursday results and Wednesday's US CPI.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Banks open the earnings season on Tuesday, followed by ASML and a cluster of US financials on Wednesday, with TSMC the heavyweight on Thursday.

The week's macro calendar is back-loaded, with CPI on Wednesday and a batch of September activity and inflation data on Thursday.

Earnings Spotlight. $TSMC (TSM.US)$ reports Thursday at 2:00pm SGT (2:00am ET), with consensus EPS around $4.45 per ADR, up roughly 52% year-on-year. Revenue is already known: TSMC reported a record third quarter of about NT$1.49 trillion (~US$46.7 billion), above its US$44.6-45.8 billion guidance, with net profit consensus near NT$740.8 billion, up 64%. The key watch items are AI-driven high-performance computing growth, advanced-node gross margins and CoWoS packaging capacity. Because TSMC is Nvidia's largest foundry, this report is an early tell on whether $Nvidia (NVDA.US)$ can sustain its large revenue guide — and it lands the same evening as the September CPI print, a rare macro-plus-semiconductor double event.

One More Thing

Keep the distinction between index health and internal rotation sharp. Last week the S&P 500 made record highs while utilities and consumer staples led and technology fell — a rotation within a healthy tape, not a risk exit. This week has two clear catalysts that determine whether the STI's bank-led dip gets bought or deepens: Wednesday's US CPI, which will reset rate-hike odds, and Thursday's TSMC results, which will confirm or dent the AI demand story. Watch both, and treat any bank-sector bounce before those prints as tentative until the data lands.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

This briefing is compiled with AI assistance from market data and wire reports, and reviewed by the Longbridge editorial team before publication.