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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) closed the previous week below its 50-week moving average and Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says the two prior times this exact pattern played out, the bear market never made a new lower low.

Two Prior Cycles Never Made a New Low After This Setup

Thorn on Monday said that Bitcoin’s current pattern already played out twice before. In 2011, Bitcoin hit $18.85, then lost its 50-week average that October. It bottomed at $2.20 in November, an 88% crash.

Bitcoin climbed back above the average in January 2012. It then slipped back below it for 20 weeks, falling as much as 35% under the line, before finally climbing back to a new high in February 2013.

Bitcoin’s 2017-2020 cycle followed the same script: a peak at $19,250 in December 2017, a loss of the 50-week average by May 2018, and a bottom at $3,195 that December, an 83% drop.

However, Bitcoin reclaimed the average in May 2019 and held above it for 29 weeks. It then dipped below the line five more times over 13 weeks, including an eight-week stretch during the March 2020 COVID crash that pushed price 38% under it. Bitcoin didn’t reclaim its old high until December 2020.

Why Thorn Says This Cushion Isn’t a Clean Predictor

In the current cycle, Bitcoin peaked at $123,524 in October 2025, then lost its 50-week average that November. 

It bottomed at $59,517 in June 2026, a 52% drop, before reclaiming the average in September and holding above it for seven weeks. 

This week, Bitcoin closed at $74,968, just below the current 50-week level of $75,488.

Thorn said he’s only looking at five cases total, and there’s no way to know for sure a bottom held until much later.

A bigger cushion at reclaim hasn’t meant much either: 2012 fell back below the average despite an 18% cushion, while 2015 held with just 8%. For this cycle, he said it comes down to one thing: whether $59,517 holds as the low.

Thorn added that the technical case he laid out two weeks ago, arguing technicals, fundamentals, positioning and sentiment together favored adding and holding Bitcoin, still stands even if price dips below the 50-week average again, as long as it’s reclaimed within a month.

This Week’s Calendar: CPI, OPEC, and 17 Fed Speakers

Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter previewed the week ahead, warning of more volatility to come:

• Tuesday: October CPI inflation data
• Wednesday: OPEC monthly report
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, October existing home sales
• Friday: October PPI inflation data
• All week: 17 Fed speaker events

Trader Michaël van de Poppe said a daily close back above $75,000 would support a bounce, while failure to hold that level risked another sharp leg lower this week.

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