Prediction Markets: Ethereum Odds Plunge, Bitcoin $80K Firms | Oct 15
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.On Kalshi, the probability the Fed raises rates 25 basis points at its October meeting rose to 28% on $163K of 24h volume, and the probability CPI rises above 0.2% month over month climbed to 49%.
On Polymarket, the implied probability of the $2,600 level in the "which price will Ethereum touch in October" contract fell to 36%, down 33 percentage points over 24 hours, on $63K of 24h volume; a week earlier that level was priced at about 81%, and the contract settles on November 1, 2026. Mining.com.au reported on October 14, citing data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, that US September CPI rose 0.6% month over month, above market expectations, lifting expectations for a Fed rate hike at the end of this month and weighing on crypto assets.
Elsewhere in Prediction Markets
Bitcoin October price: on Polymarket, the $80,000 level in the "which price will Bitcoin touch in October" contract is priced at 80%, up 23 percentage points over 24 hours, on $81K of 24h volume; it rose from 73% a week earlier.
US CPI: on Kalshi, the probability that CPI rises more than 0.2% month over month is 49%, up 11 percentage points over 24 hours, on $92K of 24h volume, rising from 38% to 49%; the contract settles on November 10, 2026.
Fed October rate hike: on Kalshi, the probability that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points at its meeting is 28%, up 9 percentage points over 24 hours, on $163K of 24h volume, rising from 19% to 28%; the contract settles on October 28, 2026.
Brazil presidential election: on Polymarket, the probability that Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round by fewer than 4 percentage points is 42%, up 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours, on $70K of 24h volume.
Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.
Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.