The potential IPO of SpaceX at a valuation exceeding $2 trillion is dividing investors, but Tema ETFs believes the market may still be underestimating what Elon Musk's space giant could ultimately become.

A recent research note from the firm argues that SpaceX should no longer be viewed merely as a rocket manufacturer, but rather as "the infrastructure layer for a future space economy."

The debate comes as prediction markets increasingly price in a SpaceX valuation north of $2 trillion ahead of its anticipated IPO, while Benzinga polling shows many retail investors remain skeptical about paying such lofty multiples.

Yet Tema CIO Yuri Khodjamirian argues the market narrative around SpaceX is evolving beyond launches and reusable rockets into broadband infrastructure, AI data capacity, satellite dominance and eventually entirely new space-enabled industries.

SpaceX May Already Have The Economics To Support A $2 Trillion Valuation

According to Khodjamirian, the strongest case for SpaceX's valuation may already exist within Starlink alone.

"Starlink already appears capable of justifying much of the $2 trillion valuation on its own," Khodjamirian wrote in Tema's research note, citing estimates that the satellite broadband business generated roughly $11.4 billion in revenue and $7.2 billion in EBITDA in 2025 from around 9 million subscribers.

Khodjamirian noted that Starlink's subscriber base could double in 2026 as satellite broadband adoption accelerates globally, and that even modest penetration into the roughly 4 billion underserved or unconnected global consumers could create staggering economics over time.

Under Tema's scenario analysis, 300 million subscribers paying $50 monthly could eventually generate approximately $180 billion in annual revenue and roughly $125 billion in EBITDA.

At those levels, a $2 trillion valuation would imply an EBITDA multiple closer to mature mega-cap technology firms than speculative aerospace startups.

But Tema believes the broader upside extends far beyond broadband.

SpaceX Is Rewriting The Economics Of Space

The centerpiece of Tema's thesis is that SpaceX has fundamentally transformed launch economics through reusable rockets and vertical integration.

"Launch costs have fallen roughly 90% over the past decade," Khodjamirian noted, arguing that dramatically lower launch costs are making previously impossible industries economically viable.

Tema argues that SpaceX's unmatched launch cadence and vertically integrated model have created competitive advantages that rivals may struggle to replicate at scale.

NASA ETF Has Emerged As A Major SpaceX IPO Proxy

Investor excitement surrounding SpaceX has also fueled explosive growth in the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NYSE:NASA), Tema's actively managed commercial space ETF that recently surpassed $1 billion in assets under management just weeks after launch.

The ETF has attracted investors seeking indirect exposure to SpaceX before its IPO through a special purpose vehicle structure, while also holding names tied to the broader commercial space ecosystem.

Tema Founder and CEO Maurits Pot previously told Benzinga that excluding SpaceX from a space ETF was "like a semiconductor ETF without Nvidia."

Beyond SpaceX exposure, NASA also invests in companies tied to launch systems, satellite infrastructure, connectivity and space supply chains, including Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS).

For Tema, however, the long-term story may ultimately be far larger than any single IPO.

"SpaceX is not merely a transportation company," Khodjamirian wrote. "It is potentially the platform that allows civilization to expand beyond the resource limitations of Earth itself."