IQMX

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday, with the call at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Analysts expect earnings of about $4.72 per share on revenue near $90.7 billion, up roughly 17% from a year earlier.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO Satya Nadella and his team will say during the call.

The stock is up around 13% this year, but investors are increasingly focused on whether Microsoft’s enormous AI spending can deliver sufficient returns.

What Kalshi Predicts Microsoft Will Say

“OpenAI” leads the board at 96%. Microsoft has committed $13 billion to the ChatGPT maker and owns roughly a quarter of the company. OpenAI has also agreed to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure cloud services.

“GitHub” also trades at 96%. Microsoft’s software development platform offers an AI assistant called GitHub Copilot, which helps programmers write code. Nadella said Copilot had reached 50 million users in July.

“Maia” trades at 93%. Microsoft plans to expand production of its own AI chips, reducing its dependence on Nvidia. The company claims its next-generation chips could deliver 40% more AI processing per unit of electricity than competing GPU systems.

“Anthropic / Claude” sits at 90%. Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion in the AI company, which committed to buying $30 billion in Azure computing capacity. Its Claude models are also available in Microsoft’s Copilot products.

“Frontier” trades at 89%. Nadella discussed “frontier models” from OpenAI and Anthropic on Microsoft’s last earnings call. The company also markets a $99-a-month “Frontier Suite” to businesses adopting AI tools.

“AMD” is at 70%, while “Cobalt” trades at 60%. Microsoft’s partnership with Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) helps diversify its AI chip supply beyond Nvidia, while its Arm-based Cobalt processors reduce reliance on conventional server CPUs.

“Memory” trades at 62%. JPMorgan expects memory chip shortages to persist through 2028, potentially raising the cost of Microsoft’s massive AI data center expansion.

What Kalshi Predicts Microsoft Will Skip

“Sovereign Cloud” trades at 50%. Microsoft announced an expansion of the service last week, giving governments and businesses greater control over where sensitive data is stored and who can access it.

“Cybersecurity” trades at just 30%, despite Microsoft’s growing investment in AI-powered security tools. Its latest Digital Defense Report found that government agencies were the most targeted sector, accounting for 27% of observed cyber threat activity in 2026.

“Gaming” trades at 41%, despite Xbox remaining a major consumer business for Microsoft. Its gaming content and services revenue fell 10% last quarter.

Reading the Board

Microsoft could beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still disappoint investors if Azure falls short.

Microsoft guided to 44% to 45% Azure growth in constant currency, but Morgan Stanley says investors are looking for around 47%. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect an even higher 47.7%, according to Reuters.

With Microsoft planning to spend more than $50 billion on infrastructure this quarter, Nadella will need Azure to clear that higher bar to show the AI spending is paying off.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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