Elon Musk could pose a much greater threat to TSMC (NYSE:TSM) if Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) helps run his Terafab semiconductor factory, rather than Musk attempting to manufacture advanced chips himself, according to a chip analyst.

“If I’m TSMC… I’m not worried about having to fight Elon. I am worried about having to fight off Intel plus Elon, because I’m already worried about Intel,” Jay Goldberg, senior semiconductor analyst at Seaport Research Partners and co-host of The Circuit, told Benzinga in an exclusive interview.

Goldberg said Intel’s manufacturing expertise could help Musk build a competitive chipmaking operation faster, but its exact role at Terafab remains unclear.

Intel Has What Musk Needs

Musk said in April that Terafab planned to use Intel’s advanced 14A chipmaking technology.

Goldberg said Intel has “an immense amount of talent” and suggested that putting CEO Lip-Bu Tan in charge of manufacturing could accelerate the project.

However, he questioned whether Musk would surrender that much control, noting his insistence on owning the intellectual property himself.

“There is a very real fight shaping up between TSMC and Intel,” Goldberg said, adding that he would not have expected such a contest a year ago.

Asked whether Terafab could lead to a showdown between Musk and TSMC, Goldberg cautioned that such a scenario “presumes a level of success greater than I would ascribe to him at this point.”

TSMC CEO C.C. Wei acknowledged Intel as a formidable competitor in April, but warned that semiconductor manufacturing offered “no shortcuts.”

Intel has plenty to gain from Terafab. The chipmaker previously warned it might abandon its 14A technology without major outside customers, although its latest quarterly filing confirmed it would complete development.

Musk’s project could provide a major new customer for the technology, helping Intel challenge TSMC as it tries to rebuild its chipmaking business.

Who Will Actually Run Terafab?

Musk said earlier this month that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) would build and operate the factory themselves.

TSMC has also discussed using part of the Texas facility, but Wei said any manufacturing operation there would have to be run by TSMC.

“Is he really building a fab or is this just a real estate deal for Intel?” Goldberg asked.

Goldberg previously told Benzinga that Terafab could be operational by 2028, but might not produce commercially significant quantities of chips until 2030.

Musk said Wednesday that Terafab could eventually cost more than $100 billion, with Tesla and SpaceX still deciding how to divide the investment.

On Tuesday, Musk revealed that both companies had formed special committees to explore a possible merger.

Traders on Polymarket see a 70% chance of an official merger announcement by the end of 2027.

Goldberg also warned that Intel would be taking a risk by relying on Musk’s long-term commitment.

“If I’m Intel, I have to be worried, is he gonna get bored in two years?” he said.

Asked who would lose most if Musk succeeds, Goldberg named TSMC, calling Intel a “jump ball” that could turn out “really good” or “really bad.”

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