Brad Gerstner says leading AI labs need to lift their combined annualized revenue from roughly $100 billion to at least $180 billion by year-end to keep the AI trade intact.

The Altimeter Capital founder, whose firm held nearly $1.9 billion of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares at the end of June, called AI lab revenue "the single most important data point in the market today" at the All-In Summit.

AI Revenue Has to Keep Exploding

Gerstner estimated that Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), which owns xAI, had a combined run rate of roughly $100 billion based on figures circulating in July.

Gerstner said the companies need to reach at least $180 billion by year-end, up about 80% from his July estimate, "just to keep the AI trade intact."

"These revenues have never happened before in the history of capitalism," Gerstner said.

He argued investors are already trading on those figures. Anthropic’s revenue run rate reportedly reached $65 billion in July, up from $47 billion in May.

"We ripped off the bottom because the fuse was lit by Anthropic’s monthly revenue," Gerstner said of the spring rally. He said stocks later consolidated after the $65 billion figure fell short of the roughly $75 billion investors had expected.

‘Somebody Has to Pay for It’

Gerstner said the revenue growth is needed to support the huge sums Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) are spending on AI infrastructure.

"If you’re going to build a trillion and a half dollars a year in capex, somebody has to pay for it," he said.

The two companies are building computing capacity that AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic pay to use.

"Microsoft’s not paying for it. They’re building it to rent it. Google’s not paying for it. They’re building it to rent it," Gerstner said.

The labs, he argued, need enough revenue from consumers and businesses to keep paying for that capacity. "Otherwise, we can’t build this much capex," he said.

Gerstner Has Skin in the Trade

Altimeter held 9.41 million Nvidia shares worth $1.88 billion at June 30, about 19% of its reported U.S. equity portfolio. Its filing also listed $303.5 million of SpaceX shares, while Altimeter holds stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI.

Gerstner called the boom "the largest capex buildout, the largest super cycle in the history of technology," and said semiconductors have generated 70% of the Nasdaq’s return this year.

That revenue test matters for Nvidia because its chips sit at the center of the infrastructure buildout Gerstner is describing. On Polymarket, traders give Nvidia a 74% chance of finishing 2026 as the world’s largest company. The market has attracted roughly $7.4 million in volume.

Nvidia shares are trading around $220 Friday morning after gaining 2.5% Thursday.

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