Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades above $76,000 on Thursday as crypto markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike since 2023.

The muted move puts the focus on what comes next—whether Wednesday’s hike was a one-off adjustment or the start of a longer tightening cycle that could pressure liquidity across crypto markets.

Why BTC Isn’t Selling Off?

Santiment Intelligence data noted on Thursday that Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $76,000 could reflect how heavily markets had positioned for tighter policy before the announcement.

Instead of reacting to the 25-basis-point hike itself, traders are now assessing whether inflation forces the Fed into a more aggressive tightening cycle.

The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% from 3.6%, with core inflation seen at 3.4%. Inflation is not expected to return to the Fed’s 2% target until 2029.

For crypto, inflation remains key:

• Cooling inflation and stable Treasury yields could ease pressure on Bitcoin.
• But persistent inflation, higher energy prices or rising yields could increase expectations for more Fed tightening.

Why Next Fed Hike Matters More For BTC

Santiment cautioned that the bigger risk for crypto could be what happens after September.

The Fed’s latest projections show a median federal funds rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026, effectively pointing to another quarter-point increase from the current range.

16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more hike this year.

That leaves Bitcoin facing a liquidity test even as it absorbs Wednesday’s widely anticipated decision.

Higher rates increase the appeal of cash and government bonds while raising financing costs and tightening financial conditions, potentially create a tougher backdrop for Bitcoin and higher-risk altcoins like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP)

What’s Next For Crypto

Santiment Intelligence sees the near-term crypto outlook as "uncomfortable."

The strong dollar, high Treasury yields and prospect of another Fed hike remain headwinds for crypto.

But September’s hike removed some uncertainty, shifting focus to upcoming inflation, energy and economic data for clues on whether further tightening is needed.

Crypto-specific catalysts can also outweigh macro pressures.

Bitcoin’s next major move may depend on both Fed policy and U.S. crypto regulation. The CLARITY Act setback highlighted BTC’s strength in responding to regulatory developments.

"The September hike is therefore neither automatically catastrophic nor secretly bullish," noted Santiment.

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