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Goldman Sachs Stock Has Dived Into a Bear Market: Will Earnings Change This?

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Goldman Sachs stock has entered a bear market, dropping over 22% from its yearly high as M&A activity slows. Despite strong Q2 results driven by trading and investment banking, investors are focused on upcoming earnings to see if revenue growth can reverse the decline. Technical indicators suggest further downside risk with a potential 'death cross' forming. Additionally, succession plans for CEO David Solomon are under scrutiny.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) stock has tumbled into a bear market, erasing billions of dollars in value. It dropped to $895 on Friday, down by over 22% from its highest point this year, with focus shifting to the upcoming earnings report.

Goldman Sachs Has Tumbled as M&A Deals Fade

GS stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months as the much-anticipated M&A boom started to lose momentum. Recent data shows that global M&A activity stood at $993 billion in the third quarter, down by 41% from the second quarter.

The most notable deals of the period included Banca Monte dei Paschi’s $32 billion bid for Banco BPM and Gold Fields’ offer for Northern Star Resources. Goldman Sachs remains the top M&A adviser this year, having worked on deals worth more than $1.5 trillion, up from $1.152 trillion last year.

Initial public offerings (IPO) have also slowed this year. Goldman Sachs was one of the top bankers in SpaceX’s IPO in March, netting $100 million in underwriting fees. It also made hundreds of millions of dollars in incentive fees. It is expected to be a top banker in the upcoming Anthropic IPO.

Goldman Sachs stock has therefore fallen as investors lower their expectations about its revenue growth. Its last results showed that its revenue jumped to $17.23 billion in the second quarter, much higher than the expected $16.97 billion.

This surge was driven by its trading business, which benefited from the volatility caused by the US-Iran war and the artificial intelligence boom. Its equities trading revenue soared by 27% to $5.33 billion, with its investment banking fees rising by 48% to $2.84 billion. This growth was offset by the 10% decline in its fixed income business.

Benzinga data shows that analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue jumped by 12.19% to $17 billion. Its earnings-per-share is expected to jump from $12.25 in Q3’25 to $13.65 in the last quarter.

These results come as succession talk builds at the bank. Media reports suggest that John Waldron, the president and chief operating officer, is expected to succeed David Solomon as CEO when Solomon’s tenure ends. If that happens, speculation is that either Denis Coleman, the CFO, or Ashok Varadhan, co-head of global banking and markets could take his current role.

Goldman Sachs Stock is Nearing a Death Cross

Technicals suggest that Goldman Sachs stock may be at risk of further downside. It is about to form a death cross as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) narrows. This pattern often leads to prolonged weakness.

The stock is also nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to nearly the oversold level. Therefore, the stock may drop towards the 50% retracement level of $783.

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