Microsoft Stock Gained Nearly 22% in July Earnings Week; Will It Rally Again This Time? Polymarket Traders Weigh In
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Microsoft shares rose nearly 22% in July's earnings week, but Polymarket traders anticipate a smaller move for the upcoming Q1 report. Current odds suggest a 1.6% rise to $540 (72%) and a 3% rise to $547.50 (52%). Analysts expect revenue of $90.7 billion and EPS of $4.72. Focus remains on AI-driven capex exceeding $50 billion and workforce restructuring affecting 60,000 employees.
Microsoft Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares ended the week of its fourth-quarter earnings report in July nearly 22% higher, but Polymarket traders are not betting on a similar move when the company reports first-quarter results on Wednesday.
Polymarket Traders Expect a Smaller Move
Microsoft shares climbed more than 15% the day after the July 29 report and ended that week nearly 22% higher.
Measured from Tuesday’s $531.33 close, traders give 72% odds that the stock touches $540 at some point this week, up 1.6%, and 52% odds of reaching $547.50, up 3%.
The odds fall to 28% for it to hit $562.50 and16% for $570.
A repeat of July’s weekly gain would put the stock at about $648.
Source: Polymarket
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Q1 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect first-quarter revenue of $90.70 billion, up from $77.67 billion a year earlier, and earnings per share of $4.72, compared to the $$4.13 it posted, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Microsoft has beaten analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings per share in more than 10 straight quarters.
The tech giant will report its results on Wednesday after the bell.
Capex and AI Spending in Focus
Microsoft said first-quarter capital expenditure would exceed $50 billion and kept its calendar 2026 outlook at about $175 billion, down from about $190 billion in April.
Traders on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket give 36% odds that quarterly capex tops $56 billion.
Concerns about neocloud financing and big tech spending are weighing on the Magnificent Seven, and Yorkville’s Dan Ives expects that pressure to hit Microsoft and its peers ahead of earnings.
The company on Monday offered buyouts to roughly 60,000 employees in the U.S., Canada, India and the U.K., Bloomberg reported, in a push to reshape its workforce for AI.
Price Action: On Tuesday, shares closed 0.24% lower at $531.33 and climbed 0.25% to $532.65 in extended trading.
The stock is up 12.35% year to date and is down 1.98% over the past year.
Benzinga Edge rankings indicate Microsoft’s stock has a Momentum score in the 88th percentile and a Growth score in the 96th percentile.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo: gguy / Shutterstock
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