Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) closed above $5 trillion for the first time Wednesday, while Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) lost ground amid growing concerns about the cost of the artificial intelligence boom.

On Polymarket, Apple’s odds of ending October as the world’s most valuable company jumped from roughly 5% early Wednesday to 22% Thursday, while Nvidia’s fell from 94% to 78%. The market has attracted about $360,000 in trading volume.

Nvidia’s market-cap lead has shrunk by nearly $570 billion in six trading sessions, from approximately $903 billion on Oct. 6 to $334 billion Wednesday.

Why Apple’s AI Caution May Be Paying Off

For years, Apple faced criticism for falling behind in AI. Now, its comparatively restrained infrastructure spending may be working in its favor as investors question the enormous cost of the AI buildout.

Apple gained 0.5% Wednesday while Nvidia fell 3.16%. Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) plunged nearly 9%, and heavily indebted CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) sank almost 16%.

Bloomberg described Apple as a relative safe haven Thursday, as rising borrowing costs put pressure on companies financing AI expansion.

D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria warned CoreWeave shareholders they could lose everything if the AI spending boom falters.

“The equity value is going to be zero,” Luria said on the Prof G Markets podcast, describing a downside scenario rather than his base-case forecast.

The concern for Nvidia is different. It sells chips to companies financing the AI buildout, so a sustained slowdown in their spending could eventually weaken demand.

Yet demand remains strong for now. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:TSM), a key Nvidia supplier, beat earnings estimates Thursday.

Neil Campling of Bloomberg Intelligence suggested the selloff could signal a shift in where investors expect to make money from AI, rather than the end of the boom itself.

JPMorgan Sees Debt Market ‘Indigestion’

Kelsey Berro of JPMorgan Asset Management said the selloff may reflect a flood of borrowing to fund AI expansion, rather than worsening financial health at major technology companies.

Cloud giants account for just 5% of the investment-grade corporate bond index but roughly half of new nonfinancial corporate bond issuance this year, she told Bloomberg Thursday.

That surge in borrowing is testing investors’ appetite for new debt, potentially driving up financing costs.

Berro described the pressure as “a lot of indigestion,” but said the underlying credit quality of major cloud providers has not materially changed.

In Polymarket’s larger year-end contest, Nvidia has dropped from around 85% to 65% in the last few days, compared with Apple’s 33%, on more than $8.5 million in trading volume.

For Nvidia, the risk isn’t weak chip demand today, it’s whether customers can justify continuing to spend at the extraordinary pace that has fueled its growth.

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