MTS

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday after the bell, with CEO Lisa Su facing investors after an 18% selloff over two sessions.

The plunge followed a weak earnings outlook from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC), which warned that rising memory prices were hurting PC demand. Concerns about AI spending also weighed on chip stocks.

Analysts expect $1.95 per share on $13.09 billion in revenue, up 42% year over year.

On Kalshi, traders expect Su to discuss AMD’s AI chips and biggest customers, but barely expect her to mention its main competitor.

What Kalshi Predicts AMD Will Say

“Helios” is at 97%. “OpenAI / ChatGPT” sits at 86%.

AMD’s new system combines AI chips, processors, networking and software into complete data-center racks, challenging Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) approach. Meta is already testing Helios, while OpenAI plans to bring it online this quarter, making deployment progress a key question for Su.

“Inference” also trades at 97%. As AI chatbots and agents handle more requests, the cost of running models is becoming critical. AMD agreed in August to acquire Taalas, whose specialized chips promise much faster, cheaper AI responses by building models directly into silicon.

“Memory / HBM” sits at 96%. AMD finance chief Jean Hu warned that high-bandwidth memory and other components remain in tight supply, potentially slowing AI-system shipments.

“Meta” stands at 92%. Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) agreed to deploy up to six gigawatts of AMD GPUs, receiving warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares tied to shipment and other milestones.

“Agentic AI” trades at 90%. AMD unveiled Helion in October, a separate platform for AI agents that execute tasks. Partner-developed configurations are expected this month.

“Microsoft / Azure” stands at 80%. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) plans to deploy Helios on Azure, with AMD expecting shipments to ramp through the fourth quarter and into 2027.

“Oracle” trades at 71%. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) announced plans last week to offer cloud services powered by AMD’s next-generation EPYC processors, although no launch date has been disclosed.

What Kalshi Predicts AMD Will Skip

“Export Restriction / Export Control” trades at 23%, despite “China” sitting at 62%. US chip-export rules complicate AMD’s access to the Chinese market.

“TSMC” stands at 20%. AMD relies on TSMC (NYSE:TSM) to manufacture its advanced chips, although Su could discuss capacity constraints without naming the manufacturer.

“Nvidia” trades at just 11%. Despite Nvidia dominating the AI accelerator market, traders expect Su to focus on AMD’s own progress.

Reading the Board

AMD has signed enormous AI deals with OpenAI, Meta and others. Now investors want evidence that those commitments are turning into sales.

Expectations are already high. Jefferies forecasts $17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, compared with Wall Street’s $16.3 billion consensus.

Simply beating estimates may not be enough. AMD exceeded forecasts in August, yet shares initially fell nearly 9% after hours.

According to Benzinga Pro options data, traders expect a 10.85% move, equivalent to roughly $83 billion in market value at Monday’s closing valuation.

The real test for Su is whether AMD can deliver enough AI revenue to justify investors’ expectations.

Image: Shutterstock

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.