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NVIDIA's Jensen Huang Unlikely to Exit Despite Scandal, Analyst Says History Offers Clues

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NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains at the center of the AI investment debate as investors weigh strong chip demand and growth prospects against rising scrutiny around CEO Jensen Huang, succession planning and potential regulatory fallout.

The stock slid over 4% on Monday as the story surrounding Huang surfaced.

Wedbush Sees Growth Outweighing Leadership Risk

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson acknowledged significant key-person risk at NVIDIA but maintained his Outperform rating and $345 price forecast.

Bryson told CNBC on Tuesday that NVIDIA remains the leader in AI semiconductors, could grow more than 70% next year and trades at roughly 10 times 2028 earnings estimate.

He expects the investigation around Huang to remain an overhang well into next year but said he sees “no reason” for Huang to step down if the matter proves personal and does not affect NVIDIA’s business.

Bryson pointed to past executive scandals, including those involving Intel’s Paul Otellini and HP’s Mark Hurd, but said those cases differed from Huang’s situation.

He suggested that historical precedent, including the U.S. government’s handling of the Super Micro case, indicates Huang may remain at NVIDIA despite the controversy.

Bernstein Says Issue Looks NVIDIA-Specific

Bernstein senior analyst Stacy Rasgon said the controversy appears specific to NVIDIA rather than a broader threat to AI demand.

He told CNBC on Monday that customers are unlikely to reduce purchases because of the controversy, but highlighted leadership risk because “Jensen is NVIDIA, NVIDIA is Jensen” and said it remains unclear who could replace Huang’s long-term strategic role.

Stephen Witt Flags Succession Risk

Stephen Witt, author of The Thinking Machine, said NVIDIA has “no real succession plan” and does not have an obvious replacement for Huang.

Witt told CNBC on Monday that the board is unlikely to remove him, although a finding that Huang knowingly enabled MegaSpeed to violate the law could create serious problems.

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Sonnenfeld Calls Governance a Key Issue

Yale School of Management’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld took a more cautious stance, saying there is “good cause to put him on hold” while investigations proceed.

Sonnenfeld told CNBC on Tuesday that NVIDIA has several capable executives, including Colette Kress, but flagged gaps in succession depth and corporate governance.

Miskin Calls NVIDIA a High-Quality Stock

Manulife John Hancock Investments co-chief investment strategist Matthew Miskin called NVIDIA “one of the highest-quality stocks on the planet Earth,” citing strong cash generation, margins, its balance sheet and leadership in the AI buildout.

He told CNBC on Tuesday that he would look at the stock opportunistically during the drawdown and would not allow a single event to overwhelm the underlying business case.

Clinton and Goldberg See Huang As Central to NVIDIA

Intelligent Alpha CEO Doug Clinton told CNBC on Monday that he estimated a 10%-20% chance that Huang could be pushed out but said shareholders and customers would not want that outcome.

Seaport Research Partners senior analyst Jay Goldberg similarly said Huang “is NVIDIA” and argued that investors should avoid assuming broader business damage before the investigation establishes the facts.

Ives Warns of Sharp Downside If Huang Exits

Yorkville Ives & Co.’s Dan Ives called the episode a “black eye moment” for Huang and NVIDIA while maintaining his Outperform rating.

He told CNBC on Tuesday that he estimated roughly a 15% chance that Huang could lose his role and said NVIDIA shares could fall 25%-30% initially if he were forced out, given Huang’s central role in the company and the broader AI ecosystem.

Cramer and Scissors Focus on China Exposure

Jim Cramer told CNBC on Monday that the investigation should focus on what Huang knew about MegaSpeed and whether the relationship affected NVIDIA’s business dealings.

American Enterprise Institute economist Derek Scissors told CNBC on Tuesday that the episode could intensify scrutiny of NVIDIA’s China exposure and U.S. export controls.

NVDA Price Action: NVIDIA shares were up 0.55% at $179.63 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Image via Shutterstock

Read Also: 'Did He Mislead His Board?': Former SEC Chair Questions Jensen Huang's Nvidia Disclosures, Warns NVDA Will Face ‘Some Tough Choices’

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