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Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) expects MSCI to exclude its common stock from its global indexes, a decision JPMorgan estimates could trigger roughly $2.8 billion in forced fund selling.

What the MSCI Decision Actually Means

Strategy disclosed in its third-quarter report that it "expects our Class A common stock to be excluded from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes," with a final ruling due today. 

Bitcoin Treasuries noted that MSCI plans to classify Strategy and Metaplanet (OTC:MTPLF) as "non-operating companies" due to their heavy crypto holdings, a label that would force passive index funds tracking MSCI benchmarks to sell their positions.

Widely-followed crypto commentator Ash Crypto called the next 24 hours "very crucial for crypto treasury companies," warning that removal from the index means billions in automatic fund selling that could crash both the stock price and ripple into broader crypto markets given Strategy’s size as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Why Schiff Is Pointing to Shareholder Dilution

Peter Schiff criticized that Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor issued more common shares to fund both Bitcoin purchases and STRC preferred stock buybacks, further diluting existing MSTR shareholders. 

Moreover, he said Strategy’s year-to-date Bitcoin yield, a metric the company uses to track Bitcoin accumulation per share, has turned negative at -4.2%.

"Sell MSTR now!" he wrote.

Where MSTR Stands Technically

MSTR has fallen roughly 28% from its early-October high near $170 to $122.50 in premarket trading, a decline of about $47.50 per share over six weeks despite today’s modest 1% rebound. 

The stock remains inside a descending channel and below all four major EMAs, with daily RSI near 37 pointing to weak momentum and no confirmed reversal yet.

Trader Notes for MSTR:

• $118 to $120: immediate support zone ($100 target if this level fails to hold)
• $135 to $138: stronger resistance, where the EMA cluster sits

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