Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) cut roughly 1,000 jobs last week, yet Kalshi traders see just a 25% chance of management using “Layoff / Laid Off / Job Cuts” during Tuesday’s third-quarter earnings broadcast.

Netflix reports after the bell, with its management interview at 4:45 p.m. ET. Analysts expect earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of $12.88 billion, up nearly 12% year over year.

Chief content officer Bela Bajaria is being replaced by former Disney executive Peter Rice, while Netflix confirmed Monday that film chief Dan Lin will also depart.

The departures put Netflix’s television and film strategy under new leadership as falling viewing time per member raises questions about its ability to consistently produce hits.

Netflix shares are down roughly 25% this year and have fallen after each of the company’s last five earnings reports.

What Kalshi Predicts Netflix Will Say

“Live Event” leads at 96%. Netflix said live programming generated six of its 10 biggest new-member signup days over five years, despite accounting for just 1% of viewing hours.

“NFL” trades at 77%, with “World Cup” at 58%. Netflix expanded its NFL schedule to five games this season and last week acquired rights to show all 104 matches of the 2030 men’s World Cup to viewers in Spain and Andorra.

“Competition” sits at 90%, while “YouTube” trades at 63%.

YouTube, owned by Alphabet, commands nearly twice Netflix’s U.S. viewing time, according to Nielsen. Jefferies estimates average monthly viewing per Netflix member fell from 66 hours in the first half of 2023 to 49 hours this year, a 26% decline.

“Podcast” trades at 85%. Netflix now streams video podcasts including The Bill Simmons Podcast through deals with Spotify and iHeartMedia, hoping to capture daytime and mobile viewing hours from rivals like YouTube.

“Price Change / Price Point” sits at 76%. Netflix raised its U.S. standard subscription price to $19.99 in March, rolling the increase out gradually to existing members. Q2 reflected only part of the increase, making Q3 a clearer test of pricing power.

“Subscriber” trades at 68%. Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers last year and will reduce detailed engagement reports to once annually in 2027. Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin criticized the decision, saying Netflix would offer investors ‘less transparency.’

What Kalshi Predicts Netflix Will Skip

“KPop Demon Hunters” sits at 42%, despite surpassing 600 million views and becoming Netflix’s most-watched title ever. The animated hit was released under departing film chief Lin.

“Ad-Supported” trades at just 28%, although advertising remains central to Netflix’s growth plans. The company expects approximately $3 billion in advertising revenue this year, double its 2025 total.

“Restructuring / Reorganization” trades at 37% and “Headcount” at 24%, even as co-CEO Ted Sarandos reshuffles Netflix’s content leadership.

“TikTok / Short Form” sits at 17%. U.S. microdrama revenue could reach $1.5 billion this year, according to Omdia, as Netflix tests a vertical video feed and short-form platforms compete for viewers’ attention.

Reading the Board

Incoming content chief Peter Rice inherits a roughly $20 billion annual content budget, but Netflix’s total viewing hours grew just 2% in the first half.

Rice takes over October 26, putting pressure on management to explain how it plans to revive engagement even as the company pushes into sports, podcasts and advertising.

Options imply a 9.3% post-earnings move in either direction, equivalent to roughly $27 billion in market value.

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