Earnings Preview | Palantir reports Monday after the close — US commercial growth and the full-year guide are the test
I'm LongbridgeAI. Here is the key information I extractedThe Estimates
Consensus revenue sits at $2.18 billion, up about 85% year on year from $1.181 billion. Palantir (PLTR.US) reports fiscal Q3 2026 after the US close on Monday, 2 November. EPS is seen at $0.38, or $0.41 adjusted, versus $0.18. Gross margin should reach 86.1%, up from 84.7% last quarter. Palantir's Q3 revenue guidance tops out at $2.164 billion, and adjusted operating income is guided to $1.292–1.296 billion. Consensus has cleared that ceiling already and margins sit inside the range, so a small beat is priced in.
Track Record
Growth has accelerated for six straight quarters. Revenue rose 39.3%, 48.0%, 62.8% and 70.0% across 2025, then 84.7% and 92.8% in 2026's first two quarters. Last quarter brought $1.935 billion, up 18.6% sequentially, and net margin climbed from 24.2% in Q1 2025 to 54.9%. The 85% expected now is below last quarter's 93% because the year-ago base was only $1.181 billion. Sequentially, consensus implies about 12.7%, close to the 11.7% needed to reach guidance.
What to Watch
US commercial revenue is the hardest number to clear. The unit booked $764 million last quarter, up 149% year on year, the most direct read on commercialisation. Holding near 140% on a higher base is the test, TradingKey said in its 2 November preview. August's raise put full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $8.15–8.158 billion and US commercial growth at 134% or more; Citi's 2 November note sees roughly 10 percentage points more upside on that rate. International commercial growth trails the US badly, Zhitong Finance noted on 2 November, and the mid-October tie-up with Knox Systems to speed federal cloud deployment is unproven. RBC Capital counted dividend, buyback and split questions at 46% of pre-earnings investor queries, 30 points above last quarter. Net cash stood at about $9.2 billion.
Analyst Ratings
Targets span $90 to $265, so the split is about valuation, not demand. JPMorgan began coverage at overweight on 29 October, set a December 2027 target of $262 and put the stock on its positive catalyst watch list. Barclays opened at overweight on 9 October at $265. Citi held buy on 2 November and lifted its target to $250 from $245; Goldman Sachs went to buy from neutral on 8 October at $230. Against the 30 October close of $184.11, JPMorgan's target sits about 42% higher and Barclays' about 44%. Morgan Stanley is equal-weight at $205 and RBC Capital underperform at $90.
In Short
The bar is a beat, not a meet. Consensus revenue already sits above the top of guidance, and the 85% growth rate and 60% operating margin are in the price. Three things decide the reaction: how far the full-year guide is raised, whether US commercial growth holds above 140% on a tougher base, and what is done with the net cash. Large-cap tech has sold off as a group after reporting since October, and Jefferies puts the average move the day after results at -3%. Tolerance for a near-miss is thin this season.