PLTY

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) fell sharply Friday, as investors weigh whether its AI growth can justify its valuation ahead of Monday’s third-quarter earnings.

Analysts expect earnings of 41 cents per share on $2.18 billion in revenue, up 84% year over year. Earnings Whispers puts the unofficial hurdle at 49 cents.

On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words CEO Alex Karp and his team will say during the 5 p.m. ET call.

What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Say

“International” and “Maven” lead at 98% each.

CFO David Glazer routinely breaks out overseas commercial and government revenue. International business supplied about 19% of sales last quarter, while international commercial revenue grew 26%, versus 149% for U.S. commercial.

The Pentagon is making Maven a core military intelligence program. “TITAN” sits at 58% after the Army awarded Palantir $127 million for battlefield targeting systems.

“Revenue Guidance” trades at 87%. Palantir raised its 2026 sales forecast by $500 million to $8.15 billion in August, implying 82% annual growth. Investors are looking for another increase.

“Sovereign AI” stands at 86%. After going unmentioned on seven consecutive calls, the phrase appeared eight times in August as Palantir pushed customers to control their AI models and data.

“Nvidia” trades at 61%. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) supplies AI chips and models used with Palantir’s software, while also deploying that software to manage its own supply chain. The companies are jointly marketing the technology to other businesses.

What Kalshi Predicts Palantir Will Skip

“Nebius” is nearly a coin flip at 49%, despite Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) becoming Palantir’s preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.

“Slop” trades at 42%. Executives used the term 17 times in May to attack AI output with little business value, but only once in August.

“Warp Speed” sits at 37%. The manufacturing software was mentioned on seven consecutive earnings calls before disappearing in August.

“Commercial Growth” trades at 31%. Executives discussed U.S. commercial revenue growth in August without saying those exact words.

“Anthropic / Claude” stands at 11%. Asked in August about AI models being pulled, after the Pentagon ordered Claude’s removal from Maven, Karp answered without naming Anthropic.

The Valuation Debate

JPMorgan analyst Brian Essex sees a business already delivering returns on AI investment, setting a $262 price target. RBC analyst Rishi Jaluria is far less optimistic, maintaining a $90 target on valuation concerns.

Against Friday’s closing price of $184.11, those targets imply roughly 42% upside or 51% downside.

Unlike AI data-center builders facing mounting financing problems, Palantir is already generating substantial cash. It produced $1.22 billion in adjusted free cash flow last quarter.

At Friday’s close, investors valued Palantir at roughly 53 times its expected 2026 revenue, leaving little room for disappointment.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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