On Wednesday, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares fell in after-hours trading despite the electric vehicle maker beating third-quarter earnings expectations.

Investors questioned its Full Self-Driving subscription metrics while bullish analysts highlighted its AI ambitions and potential strategic ties to Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX).

Tesla Stock Falls Despite Q3 Earnings Beat

Tesla closed Wednesday at $386.47, up 3.41% and fell 3.32% to $373.65 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro.

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $28.05 billion, flat from a year earlier but above the $27.88 billion analysts expected.

The EV giant attributed the revenue performance to a decline in its energy business, lower average vehicle selling prices and a year-over-year drop in deliveries.

Automotive revenue fell 3% to $20.56 billion. Adjusted earnings came in at 48 cents per share, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of 43 cents.

Gary Black Questions Tesla’s FSD Subscription Metrics

Investor Gary Black said Tesla’s after-hours decline could reflect profit-taking after the stock climbed roughly 7% over the preceding three sessions.

However, he also questioned Tesla’s reported 75% Full Self-Driving attachment rate in North America, noting that the figure may include customers using a free first month.

Black criticized Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja’s response when, during the earnings call, an analyst asked whether the paid attachment rate was closer to 30%–40%.

"CFO Taneja didn’t help matters on the call," Black said on X, adding, "Taneja didn’t really answer what seemed like an easy question."

$TSLA now down -3% AH despite beating 3Q estimates on earnings, auto gross margin ex-reg credits, and free cash flow. CFO Taneja didn’t help matters on the call when the RBC analyst asked about the 75% North America attachment rate taking into account the first month is free on…

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 21, 2026

Bulls See $2 Billion FSD Revenue Opportunity

Yorkville Ives partner and Senior Managing Director Dan Ives said FSD attachment rates exceeded 75% of North American deliveries, while active subscriptions reached 1.74 million, up 67% year over year.

He also highlighted the start of Optimus production and described Tesla’s AI ambitions as strategically aligned with a potential SpaceX merger.

Tesla FSD continues to drive sales, with attach rates topping 75% of North American deliveries and active subscriptions reaching 1.74 million (up 67% y/y). Optimus production has begun as the AI era now takes shape at Tesla which dovetails into SpaceX merger strategic fit 🎯🐂

— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) October 21, 2026

Futurum Equities’ chief market strategist Shay Boloor said Tesla added a record 260,000 FSD subscribers in the third quarter.

He estimated those additions could generate about $310 million in annualized revenue, potentially pushing FSD’s subscription revenue run rate above $2 billion.

$TSLA just added a record 260K FSD subscribers in Q3 bringing its total to 1.74M (+67% YoY)

Those new subscribers alone could generate ~$310M in annualized revenue pushing FSD's implied subscription run rate above $2B. pic.twitter.com/iR7tHuLcXS

— Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) October 21, 2026

Gene Munster Sees Long-Term Growth Potential

Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster said FSD is increasingly influencing car-buying decisions, though he doesn’t believe it is yet a deciding factor for most consumers.

Elon says demand for vehicles is exceeding production by a large margin and they're ramping production.

FSD is the selling point.

My take: I agree FSD is now part of the conversation for many new car buyers, but not the majority. In a few years, it will be the majority.…

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) October 21, 2026

Munster also highlighted Tesla’s goal of producing 5 million vehicles annually starting in 2030, compared with an estimated 2 million in 2026. "Implies 25% compound growth through 2030."

Elon suggests EV winter is ending.

Goal is 5m vehicles per year starting in 2030.

They'll do around 2m in CY26. Implies 25% compound growth through 2030. $TSLA

— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) October 21, 2026

According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, Tesla has positive short- and medium-term price trends but a negative long-term trend, while its Quality ranking is in the 53rd percentile.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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