Micron Heads Into Earnings as JPMorgan Sees HBM Shortage Lasting Through 2028
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.JPMorgan reiterates an Overweight rating on Micron Technology ahead of Q4 earnings, citing persistent HBM shortages through 2028. Analyst Harlan Sur forecasts strong memory pricing, with DRAM and NAND prices rising ~20%. Micron is expected to beat consensus estimates for revenue, gross margin, and EPS, driven by data-center demand and HBM4 ramp-up. JPMorgan projects the HBM market to reach $282 billion by 2028, with supply constraints maintaining upward pricing pressure. Micron plans to return excess cash via share buybacks following its CHIPS Act deal anniversary.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur expects Micron Technology Inc. to confirm strong memory pricing in its fourth-quarter report, due Sept. 30.
Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and $1,540 price forecast, saying Micron has several opportunities to beat current Wall Street expectations and raise its outlook.
August-quarter revenue, gross margin and EPS expectations are above Street estimates of $51.4 billion, 86.2% and $31.73, respectively.
Sur forecasts:
- DRAM average selling prices will rise more than 20% sequentially
- NAND prices to increase about 20% as high-capacity enterprise SSD supply remains tight.
- Micron’s data-center business to exceed its May-quarter annualized revenue run rate of more than $100 billion, with data-center SSD revenue likely remaining above $5 billion.
- And an additional gross-margin upside from stronger-than-expected pricing, a favorable product mix as HBM4 ramps and operating leverage.
November-Quarter Guidance Could Beat Consensus
Sur expects Micron to guide above current November-quarter consensus estimates of $56.3 billion in revenue, 86.5% gross margin and $35.71 in EPS.
He pointed to stronger customer demand signals, management’s view that calendar 2027 could prove even tighter than 2026 and continued HBM4 production growth.
JPMorgan estimates the HBM market could reach $160 billion in 2027 and $282 billion in 2028. Sur expects Micron to target an HBM market share roughly in line with its approximately 23% DRAM share.
Memory Shortage Could Persist Through 2028
JPMorgan’s supply-demand analysis shows HBM shortages of 20% in 2026, 19% in 2027 and 16% in 2028, with the cumulative shortage reaching 23 weeks by 2028.
Those constraints will maintain upward pressure on pricing even after accounting for changes in HBM specifications, Sur says.
Sur estimates Micron’s SCA coverage could rise from over 35% of bit production to more than 50%, boosting visibility into pricing and volume. He projects August-quarter free cash flow to top $24 billion, up from $18.3 billion in May. Following the Dec. 9 two-year anniversary of its CHIPS Act deal, Micron plans to return 100% of excess cash via share buybacks—a key catalyst as JPMorgan forecasts $200 billion in cumulative free cash flow through calendar 2027.