An Nvidia Earnings Miss Is Almost Unthinkable—VanEck Says There’s a Real Risk
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.VanEck warns that Nvidia's streak of beating earnings estimates is at risk due to power supply constraints rather than chip demand. Analysts project AI chips from Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom will require 30 gigawatts of U.S. power by 2027, but only 15-25 gigawatts of new data center capacity are expected annually. This potential shortfall could cause Nvidia to miss revenue targets, with every 1GW unenergized representing approximately $37 billion in lost revenue.
An Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings miss has become almost unthinkable after 15 straight quarters of beating estimates. Quarter after quarter, the AI chip giant has trained Wall Street to expect another blowout. But VanEck says the biggest threat to that streak may have little to do with demand for Nvidia’s chips — and everything to do with whether customers can actually get enough electricity to run them.
Nvidia Earnings at Risk
After consistently beating analyst estimates for revenue and earnings per share, VanEck analysts see some risk for Nvidia for the upcoming third quarter.
VanEck projects that chips sold by Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) will collectively require about 30 gigawatts of U.S. power through 2027. However, only about 15 to 25 gigawatts of new U.S. data centers with power available to run their equipment are expected to come online each year, the asset manager estimates.
"We see more risk that NVDA misses estimates because its customers cannot get power than that the miners fail to lease their megawatts," VanEck analysts including Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel wrote in a note.
Based on that assessment, the unthinkable could happen: Nvidia could keep extraordinary AI demand, but still fall short of Wall Street earnings estimates.
The analysts estimate that every 1GW its customers can’t energize represents around $37 billion of revenue, or around 6% of the total, that Nvidia could lose out on. A potential 3GW shortfall could lead to an 18% revenue drop.
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Nvidia Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Nvidia to post third-quarter earnings per share of $2.38, up from $1.30 in the year-earlier period. The company has beaten analyst expectations for earnings per share in 15 straight quarters, Benzinga Pro data show.
For revenue, analysts expect the chip giant to report a third quarter total of $104.19 billion. This would be up significantly from the $57.01 billion reported a year earlier and top the record set in the second quarter ($96.22 billion) of this fiscal year.
Nvidia has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 16 straight quarters.
VanEck’s warning could be early with third-quarter earnings likely coming in November, but show a real threat of Nvidia not being able to hit optimistic estimates from analysts due to supply.
Read Also: Nvidia Stock 'Valuation Remains Conservative': Early 2028 Guidance Has Analysts Increasing Price Targets
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