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Elon Musk says he expects "death and consolidation" across the AI cloud industry. That's a pretty dire warning, especially from someone whose own enterprise, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.(SPCX -0.40%), is now as much an AI cloud provider as it is a rocket company.

But Musk says that those very revenues from the rest of SpaceX's numerous businesses are exactly what will protect SpaceX's AI efforts from the capital crunch smaller players are facing. Is he right?

Musk warns of an AI cloud financing crunch

In a Sunday post on X, Musk said: "As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers."

He followed with a dramatic warning of the consequences: "That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many."

CoreWeave's debt highlights the risks of expensive financing

While there hasn't been any reporting that confirms his claim that debt markets have "almost entirely shut off access" for neoclouds," it is plainly true that financing is gettin much more expensive.

Yields on unsecured CoreWeave -- the poster child for neoclouds -- bonds jumped to 15% in recent weeks, firmly in "distressed" territory, and the cost to insure that debt against default has skyrocketed. Credit default swap (CDS) spreads for CoreWeave have spiked above 1,100 basis points, implying the market sees a more than 50% chance the company will default in the next five years.

This alone is a major red flag and a serious threat to CoreWeave's core model. The company essentially borrows money to buy chips, installs them in a data center it leases, and then rents those GPUs out to its customers. If borrowing gets too expensive, the math no longer works out, and shareholders lose hope they'll see a return on investment.

But if funding truly dries up, the model breaks.

SpaceX has other revenue sources to support borrowing

This is why SpaceX has an advantage, according to Musk. The revenue from its other businesses makes it a much more attractive borrower. Lenders like seeing income from other sources that can help the company continue to pay its debts even if its AI cloud business takes longer to pay off than expected.

CoreWeave and other neoclouds don't have that luxury, and many are more or less entirely reliant on borrowed money to survive. Still, Musk's warning may be too sweeping. Nebius, for instance, secured a $3.5 billion credit facility from Citi just last week, showing that lenders haven't stopped financing the industry altogether.

SpaceX's AI spending still needs to pay off

But is SpaceX immune? Not entirely. It certainly is a much more attractive borrower than most neoclouds and has a diversified revenue mix it can draw on to fund its AI ambitions. And beyond that, its own AI division's revenue is skyrocketing with several lucrative contracts, the first of which is beginning to pay out.

Image source: Getty Images.

But I think investors need to be somewhat careful about how much comfort they take from that. Revenue is only part of the picture and can be somewhat misleading. What matters more is cash, and right now, the company is still spending a whole lot more of it than it is bringing in.

So, while I think SpaceX doesn't face the same imminent threat as neoclouds like CoreWeave, I do think its AI bets are still unproven. SpaceX still needs to earn enough from its AI infrastructure to justify the enormous cost of building it, including the interest it owes lenders.