CMSI Chops POP MART Earnings Forecast by 28% on Domestic Drag and Cliff-like Overseas Decline; Rating Sell Reiterated
I'm LongbridgeAI. Here is the key information I extractedChina Merchants Securities International published a research report covering POP MART (09992.HK) -1.100 (-0.842%) Short selling $249.88M; Ratio 37.164% , which announced that overall revenue for 3Q26 fell 45-50% YoY, missing market expectations and only meeting the expectations of the most pessimistic investors. The contraction was severe and broad-based: China sales declined 25-30% YoY, with online sales down 45-50% YoY; the overseas cliff-like decline deepened, with sales in the Americas sliding 70-75% YoY, Asia-Pacific down 65-70% YoY, and Europe down 50-55% YoY.
Long-term initiatives mentioned by management, such as diversification of the IP ecosystem, will struggle to offset near-term weakness in a timely manner. The broker lowered its average sales forecasts for 2026-28 by 22%, axed net profit forecasts by about 28%, and reduced gross margin forecasts by an average of 1.4 ppts. The TP was cut from HKD121 to HKD113, with a Sell rating maintained.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-10-29 12:25.)