SDVY

On Polymarket, the probability of no change to the Fed's policy rate at the December FOMC meeting has fallen to 8%, on $707K of 24h volume, down from 23% to 8% over 24 hours — a decline of 15 percentage points — with settlement on December 9. A week ago that contract priced around 26%; with a hold now down to single digits, unchanged policy in December sits on the low-probability side, and the contract's pricing has clearly shifted toward a policy move.

Market Implication

The reading points to the rate path itself: with unchanged policy at the December meeting priced sharply lower, expectations for how long the policy rate stays elevated have adjusted accordingly, transmitting through the discount rate to funding costs. For assets with differing rate sensitivity, what can be tracked is the change in that rate path rather than any single reading. (Note: prediction market data reflects crowd sentiment, not certainty, and is provided here as a market indicator only.)

Elsewhere in Prediction Markets

Kai Cenat GTA livestream: on Polymarket, the contract priced at 70%, up 43 percentage points over 24 hours, on $132K of 24h volume.

Hegseth impeachment: on Polymarket, the probability of Hegseth being impeached before December 31 was 81%, up 15.4 percentage points over 24 hours, on $87K of 24h volume.

Another hike in 2026: on Polymarket, the probability of one more rate hike in 2026 was 90%, on $168K of 24h volume, up from 75% to 90% over 24 hours — a rise of 15 percentage points; the seven-day gain was 18 percentage points, from around 72% a week ago.

December 25bp hike: on Kalshi, the contract for a 25 basis point hike at the December FOMC meeting priced at 88%, on $130K of 24h volume, up from 77% to 88% over 24 hours — a rise of 11 percentage points — with settlement on December 9.

Israel-Iran ceasefire: on Polymarket, the probability that the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through December 15 was 78%, on $64K of 24h volume, up from 68% to 78% over 24 hours — a rise of 10 percentage points; the seven-day gain was 39.5 percentage points, from around 38.5% a week ago.

Methodology: volumes above are 24-hour taker notional (shares traded x traded price) on both platforms. Kalshi contract volume is converted to US dollars at the traded price so the two platforms are directly comparable.

Please note: The figures above are sourced from public prediction market platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) and represent aggregated market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by Longbridge. Longbridge does not offer prediction market trading. This content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice.