STI: closed at 5,635.41, down 3.23 points (-0.06%) on Wednesday — before the Federal Reserve's decision landed after Singapore's close.

Banks: $DBS (D05.SG)$ +S$0.05 to S$76.80; $OCBC (O39.SG)$ +S$0.18 to S$31.18; $UOB (U11.SG)$ -S$0.12 to S$41.21.

Overnight: the Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and signalled more to come; the Dow dropped 631 points (-1.2%).

Today: Carnival reports pre-market and US housing data arrives at 8.30pm SGT.

Singapore Open

The Straits Times Index closed essentially flat on Wednesday, slipping 3.23 points (-0.06%) to 5,635.41 — a session that ended before the Fed's 2am SGT decision, making this morning's open the first chance to price in the hawkish surprise. The index sits about 2.9% below its September 4 record close of 5,801.96. Banks were steady rather than defensive: $DBS (D05.SG)$ added S$0.05 to S$76.80, $OCBC (O39.SG)$ rose S$0.18 to S$31.18 and $UOB (U11.SG)$ slipped S$0.12 to S$41.21, while $SGX (S68.SG)$ eased S$0.15 to S$22.38. A structural positive is coming: from October 5, SGX cuts the minimum board-lot size to 10 shares, sharply reducing the cash needed to own the banks. REITs need watching this morning — a 5% US 10-year yield raises their funding costs.

Singapore Macro

The local growth story stays strong even as global rates bite. MAS's September survey of professional forecasters lifted the 2026 GDP call to 5.0% (from 3.5% in June), after MTI raised its own range to 4.5%-5.5%; core inflation is seen landing around 1.5%-2.4%. In July, MAS — which tightened policy in April 2026 — flagged renewed energy-price spikes as the main upside risk to inflation. For SGX investors the transmission is clear: a hawkish Fed lifts the dollar and keeps the 10-year near 5%, arguing for a firmer SGD NEER to curb imported inflation — a tailwind for bank net interest margins, but a squeeze on REIT financing costs and exporters.

US Overnight

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since July 2023, lifting the target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give forward guidance while the dot plot pointed to another hike this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to about 5%. Stocks reversed late: the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,551.81, the Dow dropped 631 points (-1.2%) and the Nasdaq was little changed. August retail sales, up 1.2% month-on-month versus a 0.8% consensus, had already strengthened the case for tightening.

$Generac (GNRC.US)$ surged more than 37% after hours — the backup-power maker unveiled an $8 billion deal to supply data-centre standby generators to $Amazon (AMZN.US)$, with $2.4 billion in initial deliveries across 2027-2028; Amazon also received a warrant to buy up to 1.69 million shares at about $200.93. Gold whipsawed, rallying toward $4,365 an ounce intraday before the hawkish Fed knocked it down roughly 1.4% to around $4,262.

Asia Pre-Market

US futures were little changed in early Thursday Asian trade — S&P 500 futures +0.03% at 7,557.50, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.04% and Dow futures flat — suggesting the post-Fed selling has paused. WTI slipped 1.8% to about $103.6 a barrel and Brent 1.1% to $107.25, still solidly above $100 on Middle East supply risks; gold hovered near $4,262 and Bitcoin traded around $75,000-76,000, near a four-week low. For SGX, the rate signal matters more than the equity tape: a 5% US 10-year yield and firmer dollar keep pressure on REITs while supporting bank margins.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

It is a light week for earnings, with the macro calendar doing most of the work.

Carnival (CCL.US) is the spotlight, reporting before the US open on Thursday (Thursday evening Singapore time). Consensus looks for EPS around $1.29, though revenue estimates are not widely published. Fuel is the swing factor: with Brent near $107, Carnival has described elevated crude as a roughly $500 million annual headwind.

One More Thing

The framework for today: separate a rate shock from a growth shock. The Fed is hiking because demand is running hot — retail sales beat and Singapore's GDP forecast was just upgraded to 5% — not because credit is breaking. That split flows straight into SGX: banks can absorb higher-for-longer rates, while REITs and yield-sensitive names carry the cost. Watch whether the three banks hold their levels into the open — if they do, capital is rotating into Singapore's quality yield rather than leaving the market.

Sources: MAS Monetary Policy Statement (July 2026) and MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters; Yahoo Finance (STI close); AP and Federal Reserve (rate decision).

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.