Micron (NASDAQ:MU) heads into today's earnings report in a position few would have imagined for a memory-chip maker: it could be the biggest contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth this quarter, potentially taking that crown from Nvidia. Wall Street expects Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter profit to rise roughly tenfold from a year ago, while revenue is projected to climb more than 350%.

That makes tonight's report less about proving that AI is creating a bonanza for memory – investors have already had ample evidence of that – and more about what Micron can put on the table after a huge run. MU stock has gained about 280% in 2026, while options pricing suggests investors are braced for a move of around 7% in either direction following the results.

One analyst heading into the print with a bullish view is Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore, who ranks among the top 1% of Wall Street analysts.

"The debate has very clearly shifted from 'how good can it get?' to 'how long can it stay this good'. That's a debate that can take longer to win, but we do have conviction in durability," Moore noted.

In practical terms, Moore thinks the favorable memory environment has "multiple years" left to run rather than quarters. AI infrastructure continues to absorb available output, while additional production is unlikely to catch up fast enough to loosen the market soon.

That conviction rests partly on what the analyst is hearing from the industry. Moore says contacts expect availability to become even more constrained relative to consumption in 2027 and 2028, despite higher capital spending and expanding DRAM production forecasts. He also sees Chinese manufacturers as unlikely to grow fast enough to overturn that picture.

For tonight, however, Moore isn't expecting the sort of giant estimate reset that Micron investors have become accustomed to. The analyst anticipates earnings forecasts moving higher after the report, just by a smaller amount than following recent quarters. "We still see that as fairly conservative, but also normally we do see the company guiding fairly conservatively," he added.

Moore expects DRAM average selling prices to rise 16% sequentially in the August quarter and NAND prices to increase 20%. For the November quarter, his model assumes another 12% increase for DRAM and 10% for NAND. The analyst sees Micron generating $57.56 billion in November-quarter revenue, above the Street's $56.64 billion estimate, while his $35.57 EPS forecast also tops the $35.07 consensus.

There are some caveats, however. Long-term agreements containing price caps mean some memory sales will not immediately capture higher market rates, while Micron's 14-week August quarter creates a tougher sequential comparison. Moore also cautions investors against counting on an aggressive buyback announcement just yet, with restrictions connected to CHIPS Act funding limiting Micron's flexibility until December.

Perhaps the most important part of Moore's argument, though, is what he believes could eventually bring the cycle to an end: "It remains our belief that this cycle will likely end if/when AI spending slows, not because of incremental supply, but we remain vigilant in our industry checks."

Moore remains bullish on Micron, although he acknowledges that proving the longevity of the current conditions will take time. "We like the stock, though we do favor the compute names," he said, adding that there is "no real way to prove" the staying power of memory strength in the near term.

Moore's optimism comes with a more modest payoff from here. His Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating is paired with a $1,200 price target, leaving MU with about 13% room to run. (To watch Moore's track record, click here)

The rest of Wall Street is firmly in Micron's corner as well. MU carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 21 analysts, with 20 Buys, and just one Hold. The average 12-month price target of $1,469.25 points to about 37% upside from current levels. (See MU stock forecast)