U.S. President Donald Trump has caused a stir globally with a series of tariff increases and other measures. Japanese companies are facing increasing uncertainty and difficulty in forecasting the future, prompting them to leverage their networks and resources to enhance information gathering and analyze various risks, enabling management to make informed decisions.

Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) reported today that one initiative by Japan's major beverage company Suntory Holdings was to establish an office near the White House in the U.S. this January to gather information from relevant U.S. government officials.

The staff at Suntory's office have visited consulting firms familiar with the internal decision-making processes of the Trump administration to understand how decisions are made. This office communicates the latest information to the intelligence promotion headquarters located in Japan.

Hiroshi Eguchi, who heads Suntory's office, has long worked in trading companies and has experience stationed in various parts of the world, including Washington D.C. He attended the signing ceremony of the Japan-U.S. trade agreement as a representative of the private sector during Trump's first term.

In early March of this year, Eguchi received an inquiry from a supply chain manager within the company regarding a suggestion to change the malt transportation route. Malt is one of the main ingredients for the company's primary product, beer. The company imports malt from Europe via the Cape of Good Hope route in South Africa, but with rising transportation costs, they hope to revert to the previously used Suez Canal route.

The desire to revert to the Suez Canal is influenced by the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian organization Hamas in January of this year. The Houthi rebels in Yemen support Hamas and had previously attacked Western vessels passing through the Suez Canal. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in January has led to the Houthis suspending attacks on vessels.

For companies whose ships pass through the Suez Canal, the movements of the Houthis have become critical.

To grasp the situation as early as possible, Eguchi utilized his network and previously consulted a former British intelligence officer familiar with Middle Eastern affairs.

The former British intelligence officer stated at the time, "The Houthis previously did not have the capability to distinguish which country's vessels they were targeting, but from my understanding, the Houthis are currently clearly only targeting Israeli vessels." He predicted that the Houthis would focus solely on Israeli vessels in the future, reducing attacks on Western ships. However, companies still need to assess how much risk they are willing to take.

Eguchi later also reached out to Herbert Raymond McMaster, who served as National Security Advisor during Trump's first term, in an attempt to clarify the U.S. stance towards the Houthis, who are under severe sanctions. McMaster is a U.S. Army general who has operated in the Middle East.

McMaster analyzed, "Compared to the Biden administration, I believe there are several changes in operations and actions under the Trump administration. President Trump not only intercepted Houthi missiles but likely granted the U.S. Navy and other units more authority than before to attack Houthi strongholds." He warned that the Trump administration might soon attack Houthi positions After collecting relevant information from multiple sources, Jiang Gu directly reported to the representative director and chairman of Suntory Holdings, Takashi Shina, stating that it would be difficult to restart the shipping routes through the Suez Canal, and pointed out that "the situation in the Middle East is expected to become quite chaotic."

Two days after Jiang Gu presented this report to Shina, as predicted by McMaster, the United States attacked the stronghold of the Youth Movement located in Yemen.

In an interview with NHK, Shina stated, "Our business is in the food industry, and many of our raw materials come from overseas, so ensuring a stable supply is extremely important. However, as the US-China confrontation intensifies, this has become increasingly difficult. The war in Ukraine is also a very representative example. The world has become so chaotic, and stable supply is also under threat."

Shina continued, "Currently, the predictability of the (world situation) is quite low, making it a very challenging time for business operations. During my previous visit to Washington, I met with a globally renowned entrepreneur, and I was surprised to hear him say, 'I've been very busy lately, spending 1/3 of my time listening to geopolitical information.'"

Shina pointed out, "Business operators ultimately must make decisions and must strive to improve their forecasting abilities. To achieve this, intelligence becomes crucial, and by establishing intelligence departments, we can enhance our business forecasting capabilities and minimize risks. I believe that sometimes intelligence can bring us new business opportunities."